#118 On-chain Insights by IT Tech - Week 10 Bitcoin Analysis & Highlights
Critical Moment for Crypto: Fed Rate Outlook & ETF Selling Pressure Drive Market Uncertainty.
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Table of contents:
Partnership with WymienBitcoina.pl
Top 10 Cryptocurrency News Highlights
Current market situation
Weekly Insider Token Unlocks: Potential Sell Pressure
Bitcoin ETF Holdings & Netflow Analysis
Fed Rates & Inflation: Crypto Market Impact
Stablecoin Market Overview
Support the Newsletter: Exclusive Content & Perks
Newsletter issue summary
Forecast for the Upcoming Week
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2. Top 10 Cryptocurrency News Highlights (Mar 3–9, 2025)
Trump Initiates U.S. Bitcoin Reserve:
President Trump signed an executive order creating a strategic crypto reserve with 200,000 seized Bitcoin.
Historic White House Crypto Summit:
Trump pledges to make the U.S. "the Bitcoin superpower," emphasizing strong crypto support.
Bitcoin Hits $92K, Then Retreats:
BTC surged 6.23% to $92,328 before retreating slightly after the reserve details were unveiled.
XRP Gains 6.7% Amid Reserve Buzz:
XRP rises sharply as Trump includes it alongside BTC, ETH, ADA, and SOL in reserve talks.
Ethereum Boosted by Reserve Inclusion:
ETH climbs 6.42%, reversing some yearly losses after official inclusion in the U.S. crypto reserve.
Crypto Market Cap Exceeds $3 Trillion:
Market capitalization surpasses $3T, reflecting bullish sentiment ahead of U.S. policy announcements.
Summit Triggers Centralization Debate:
Industry debates potential centralization risks from increased government involvement.
Altcoins Rally: MOVE & ONDO Soar:
MOVE Token (+26%) and ONDO (+22%) lead significant altcoin gains during the week.
Regulatory Clarity Post-Summit:
Trump urges crypto-friendly legislative action by August, signaling clearer regulations ahead.
Bullish Bitcoin Predictions Adjusted:
Analysts update BTC targets, forecasting potential $200K highs by end-2025 due to supportive policies.
This week focused heavily on major U.S. government developments influencing crypto markets, sparking both optimism and ongoing debates.
3. Current market situation.
Quick Market Analysis:
The crypto market shows a slight stabilization compared to the previous heavy sell-off
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $85,067, showing minimal daily change (-0.93%)
Ethereum (ETH) slightly down by 4.29% at $2,144, with altcoins mostly still in the red
Selective Altcoins rebound: Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is up 18.31%, Toncoin (TON) is recovering by 14.66%, and Chainlink (LINK) is up 17.17%
Despite minor recovery signs, market sentiment remains cautious as most altcoins continue experiencing losses
Key Takeaways:
Slightly reduced panic selling, with selective buying seen in certain assets
BTC dominance holding, hinting at investor preference for major cryptocurrencies in uncertain times
Market conditions remain fragile; investors should watch for further stabilization or potential rebounds.
Key Observations:
Bitcoin price currently trades near a critical support level at around $84,900.
The SuperTrend indicator is currently bearish (red), suggesting ongoing downward momentum.
Volume Profile (on the right) indicates significant clusters of potential liquidation points, particularly concentrated in the area below the current price range, extending from around $84,000 down to approximately $82,000.
A large cluster of liquidation points indicates an increased risk for further downward pressure, as hitting these levels might trigger additional cascading liquidations.
Key Takeaways:
The presence of extensive liquidation clusters just below current price levels poses a significant risk of rapid price drops due to cascading liquidations if the $84,000 level is broken.
The bearish SuperTrend alignment indicates that bearish momentum dominates at the moment, reinforcing the downside risk.
Bulls must defend the current zone vigorously to avoid a potential acceleration of the downside move.
Conclusion:
Traders should closely monitor the critical support around $84,000. If breached, rapid moves towards lower liquidation clusters ($83,000-$82,000) become highly probable.
Risk management and caution are advised, as liquidation-driven volatility might sharply increase in the short term.
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4. Weekly Insider Token Unlocks: Potential Sell Pressure.
Major Unlocks & Market Impact: $142.34M unlocks this week. Potential sell pressure across key tokens:
CONX unlocks $24.6M, representing a massive 113.04% of its circulating supply. Significant dilution risk and extreme volatility expected
APT releases $40.5M (1.15% of supply), with 73.82% previously locked. High risk of short-term selling pressure and increased volatility
ARB sees a major unlock of $37.4M (2.10% of supply). Considerable impact is likely, given 67.05% of previously locked tokens entering circulation.
March 15 presents simultaneous unlocks for CONX, SEI, and STRK, heightening correlated market volatility risk.
Market Risks & Opportunities
CONX, APT, and ARB face the highest short-term sell-off risk due to large supply injections
Moderate unlocks for SEI ($12.5M), STRK ($12M), and STIK ($7.9M) present mid-level volatility risks.
Tokens absorbing unlocks with minimal price disruption could indicate bullish market sentiment.
Traders should closely monitor CONX, APT, and ARB for extreme volatility and sharp price moves.
5. Bitcoin ETF Holdings & Netflow Analysis.
Key Observations:
Total ETF Bitcoin holdings stand at approximately 1.13 million BTC.
There is a clear recent trend of net outflows across major Bitcoin ETFs, particularly visible from March 3 to March 8, with cumulative outflows surpassing 16,000 BTC.
Largest outflows observed:
BlackRock: -9,909 BTC on March 3; significant reduction over the week.
Fidelity, Grayscale, Ark/21 Shares, and Bitwise also show notable BTC reductions.
Small inflows sporadically occurred (e.g., Van Eck and Ark/21 Shares), but they were overshadowed by significantly larger outflows.
Key Takeaways:
Institutional sentiment visibly weakened in early March, demonstrated by substantial ETF outflows coinciding with the recent Bitcoin price declines.
BlackRock, the largest ETF issuer, contributed most to this negative flow, suggesting major institutional investors might be de-risking amid market volatility.
Minor inflows were insufficient to balance out significant withdrawals, highlighting overall caution and potential profit-taking.
Conclusion:
ETF-driven demand, previously a key support for Bitcoin’s valuation, has markedly decreased. Continued large-scale ETF outflows could exacerbate downward pressure on BTC’s price. Traders and investors should closely watch ETF netflows as a critical indicator for potential market movements in the near term.
6. Fed Rates & Inflation: Crypto Market Impact.
Truflation Inflation Index Summary:
Current annual inflation stands at 1.40%, significantly lower than the official government-reported rate (3.0%).
The trend indicates inflation pressures have notably eased from highs above 3% in late 2024, suggesting continued economic cooling.
Fed Rate Outlook (from CME FedWatch):
March 19, 2025, Fed Meeting:
88.0% probability of rates remaining unchanged (425–450 bps).
12.0% probability of a rate cut to 400–425 bps.
May 7, 2025, Fed Meeting:
Market expectations shift notably, with a combined 52.1% chance of a rate cut:
46.6% likelihood for a 400–425 bps rate.
5.5% likelihood for a deeper cut to 375–400 bps.
June 18, 2025, Fed Meeting:
86.2% combined probability of at least one rate cut:
47.5% likelihood of a 400–425 bps rate.
34.7% likelihood of a deeper cut to 375–400 bps.
3.9% likelihood for an aggressive cut to 350–375 bps.
Implications & Forward-Looking Analysis:
Given the continued downward trajectory of real-time inflation (1.40% according to Truflation), market expectations for monetary policy easing by the Fed are increasing, especially from May onward.
A significant gap between official CPI data (3.0%) and Truflation’s (1.40%) suggests that real inflation might be lower than officially acknowledged, providing the Fed with ample justification for future rate cuts.
If inflation remains stable or declines further, the Fed may feel increasingly comfortable easing monetary policy to stimulate growth and mitigate recession risks.
Market participants should anticipate increased volatility around these Fed decision points, as any deviation from current expectations (such as delayed rate cuts or a pause) could prompt significant market reactions, impacting equities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies.
Conclusion:
Given the expected Fed policy easing, crypto markets might see a short-to-medium-term recovery or rally. However, investors should remain cautious due to the inherent volatility surrounding Fed policy announcements and closely monitor market reactions leading into Q2 2025.
7. Stablecoin Market Overview.
Stablecoin Market Overview
Key Observations:
The total stablecoin market cap stands at $227.24 billion, reflecting improved liquidity conditions.
A weekly inflow of $2.93 billion (+1.30%) signals increased investor readiness to enter crypto markets.
Minimal daily change (+$46.97 million) suggests market stability and cautious optimism.
The monthly change of +$4.37 billion (+1.96%) indicates a sustained recovery in market sentiment.
USDT dominance is at 63.03%, affirming its continuing position as the leading stablecoin.
Market Implications:
Increased stablecoin inflows provide liquidity that could fuel short-term bullish momentum in crypto.
Positive weekly and monthly inflows suggest investor sentiment is turning cautiously optimistic.
The rise in stablecoin supply could help stabilize Bitcoin and altcoin prices after recent volatility.
Conclusion:
The current stablecoin inflow trend signals improving market confidence and liquidity, which may support crypto price stability or recovery in the near term. Investors should monitor stablecoin flows as an indicator of potential shifts in market sentiment.
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9. Newsletter Issue Summary.
. Partnership with WymienBitcoina.pl:
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2. Top 10 Cryptocurrency News Highlights:
Trump announces US Bitcoin Reserve, sparking a rally. Crypto summit raises centralization concerns; XRP, ETH, altcoins surge; Bitcoin briefly tops $92K; $3T market cap milestone reached.
3. Current Market Situation:
Crypto stabilizing; Bitcoin at critical $85K support, selective altcoin rebounds (BCH, TON, LINK). Caution is advised due to potential liquidation clusters below $84K.
4. Weekly Insider Token Unlocks:
$142M unlocked tokens incoming; CONX (113% circulating supply), APT, and ARB face severe volatility risk. High potential for price movements on March 15.
5. Bitcoin ETF Holdings & Netflow Analysis:
Major ETF outflows observed (16,000+ BTC withdrawn), BlackRock leads selling. Institutional confidence waning; ETF trends crucial for price direction.
6. Fed Rates & Inflation: Crypto Market Impact:
Real-time inflation (Truflation: 1.40%) is lower than official reports (3.0%). High probability of Fed rate cuts starting May 2025. Crypto could benefit short-term from easing monetary policy but expect volatility.
7. Stablecoin Market Overview:
Market cap at $227.24B with positive inflows, signaling improving liquidity and cautious market optimism. Could stabilize or boost crypto markets.
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10. Forecast for the Upcoming Week.
Critical BTC Levels: Watch closely for BTC holding the $84K-$85K support zone. Breaking below could trigger cascading liquidations towards $82K.
Fed Policy Volatility: Upcoming Fed meeting (Mar 19) likely no rate changes; May and June expected rate cuts could positively influence crypto but increase short-term volatility.
ETF Flows Impact: Continued ETF outflows, especially from BlackRock, pose risks of extended downside pressure on BTC.
Token Unlock Risk: High volatility is expected around CONX, APT, and ARB due to substantial token unlocks this week.
Stablecoin Liquidity Boost: Positive stablecoin inflows signal potential liquidity support for a crypto rebound; monitor closely.
Market Outlook
Stay alert and track key indicators for deeper market insights. Track upcoming US events for free using the Economic Calendar.
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This concludes this issue. I hope you have a pleasant end to your weekend and a great week ahead.
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IT Tech