#119 On-chain Insights by IT Tech - Week 11 Bitcoin Analysis & Highlights
Bitcoin’s Turning Point: Miner Selling, Whale Slowdown & Stablecoin Surge.
Hello,
The 119th issue of On-chain Insights by IT Tech is out! I appreciate your support - over 4,500 subscribers strong! Haven’t joined yet? Now's the time to join! 👇
1. Partnership with WymienBitcoina.pl
I'm thrilled to collaborate with WymienBitcoina.pl, founded by Patryk Kempiński of Krypto Raport.
WymienBitcoina.pl offers a secure way to trade over 190 cryptocurrencies and access crypto-related products like wallets and books, supported by expert staff.
To make it even better, I waived my commission to lower fees - use the code IT TECH for additional savings!
Follow me on X/Twitter 👉 click and subscribe to my YouTube channel 👉 click.
Find all my social media and important links in my pinned post on X/Twitter, including my Linktree. Join the discussion group linked on my profile (requests must be approved). Stay updated with alerts, liquidation levels, and more.
Get faster updates and more content on my free Telegram channels:
IT Tech Crypto - Analysis, Liquidations maps, alerts, and more.
IT Tech Crypto - comments - commentary channel for everyone, On-chain alerts, bots, reports, and more.
Due to X/Twitter blocking tweet embedding on Substack, I now include tweet screenshots alongside their links in the description.Weekly On-Chain Dashboard - New Indicators.
Here you'll find all the essential charts for market analysis in one place. It's free for everyone. Enjoy it! 👇
2. Top 10 Cryptocurrency News Highlights (Mar 10–16, 2025)
Bitcoin Price Volatility - Bitcoin experienced significant price swings, dropping 11-12% earlier in the week amid a broader market crash, with some analysts eyeing a potential recovery toward $70K as sentiment shifted later in the week.
Trump’s Crypto Strategic Reserve - The Trump administration signed an order to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, though no new purchases have been made yet, disappointing some investors and contributing to market fluctuations.
Ethereum’s Decline - Ethereum saw a steeper decline than Bitcoin, falling 20% and dipping below $1.9K, raising concerns about its impact on DeFi and crypto loans backed by substantial ETH holdings.
SEC Regulatory Shifts - The U.S. SEC dropped cases against Kraken and Yuga Labs and signaled it would stop requiring crypto firms to register as trading systems, hinting at a more favorable regulatory stance under the Trump administration.
Ripple’s Expansion - Ripple secured a license from Dubai’s DFSA to offer regulated crypto payments in the UAE’s DIFC, alongside SEC acknowledgment of spot Ethereum ETF filings that include staking support from Fidelity and Franklin Templeton.
Mt. Gox Bitcoin Movement - Mt. Gox transferred 11,502 BTC (approximately $905 million) to an unknown wallet, sparking speculation and contributing to market uncertainty.
Solbank Finance Scandal—Solbank Finance was accused of selling millions of $LOTTO tokens that weren’t theirs, including those belonging to an individual named Parker Parody. This led to community outrage and calls for accountability.
Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF Filing - Franklin Templeton filed for an XRP ETF with the CBOE, signaling growing institutional interest in altcoins beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Banking Sector Crypto Adoption - The U.S. OCC confirmed banks can custody crypto, while Spain and Thailand’s SEC also greenlit crypto services, reflecting a global trend toward mainstream financial integration.
Sam Bankman-Fried Updates - Tucker Carlson interviewed SBF from jail, though SBF was later placed in solitary confinement due to an “unauthorized interview,” keeping the FTX saga in the spotlight.
These highlights reflect a mix of market movements, regulatory developments, and notable incidents shaping the crypto landscape over the past week.
3. Current market situation.
The latest market sentiment shows a broad decline across major cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin down -1.9% at $83,937 and Ethereum seeing a sharper drop of -11.66% to $1,911. Some altcoins are holding stronger, but the overall trend reflects increased volatility.
4. Weekly Insider Token Unlocks: Potential Sell Pressure.
Weekly Insider Unlocks: March 17 - 23, 2025: Total Unlocks: $122.70M+
Insider Unlocks Highlights:
$FTN (4.65%) – $79.80M
$MELANIA (17.50%) – $17.84M
$ID (13.94%) – $14.23M
$APE (1.00%) – $4.00M
$PRIME (1.33%) – $2.49M
$PIXEL (5.85%) – $1.71M (Percentage = % of circulating supply)
Why It Matters:
Insider unlocks can introduce selling pressure if early investors or teams take profits.
Higher % unlocks (like $MELANIA 17.5% & $ID 13.94%) could have a stronger impact on price.
Keep an eye on liquidity & market reactions to these events!
5. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index Analysis.
Coinbase Premium Index:
Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index turned positive, indicating increased buying activity from U.S.-based investors.
A shift from negative to positive premium suggests stronger demand on Coinbase relative to other exchanges.
Price action aligned with this sentiment, maintaining stability around the $84.3K level.
6. Bitcoin: Short-Term Holder Analysis.
Short-Term Holder Realized Profit & Loss
Short-term holders (STHs) are currently experiencing negative realized P&L, with a profit/loss margin of -6.8%.
This suggests that many recent buyers are in a loss position, which could increase selling pressure unless a price recovery occurs.
STH MVRV is nearing historically significant levels, potentially indicating an upcoming trend reversal.
7. BTC: Comparison of Demand and Supply Between New and Old Investors.
Demand & Supply Between New and Old Investors
New investors dominated market demand during the late 2024 rally but have since decreased their activity.
Meanwhile, long-term holders continue distributing, aligning with typical cycle dynamics where experienced investors take profits into market strength.
Current metrics suggest we are in a phase of supply re-accumulation by stronger hands.
8. Retail Investor Demand Change.
Retail Investor Demand (30D Change)
Retail investor demand has slowed down significantly, mirroring previous cycle peaks.
This metric suggests that smaller investors are less aggressive in accumulation, possibly waiting for better entry points.
The lack of new retail demand could lead to short-term consolidation before another leg up.
9. Bitcoin Apparent Demand (30-day sum).
Apparent Demand & Market Trends
The 30-day apparent demand for Bitcoin remains in a neutral state, with periods of positive and negative demand fluctuations.
Market stability is dependent on sustained positive demand to absorb ongoing supply inflows.
A shift towards consistent positive demand could reinforce bullish market conditions.
10. Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Flow vs Exchange to Miner Flow.
Miner-to-Exchange Flow
Miner inflows to exchanges have increased, typically a sign of miners taking profits.
Exchange-to-miner flows remain relatively stable, indicating miners are not yet in distress.
If miner selling accelerates, it could introduce short-term volatility into the market.
11. 1-Year Change in Whales Bitcoin Holdings.
Whales Holdings (1-Year Change)
Whale accumulation has slowed down, with a year-over-year decline in total holdings.
Historically, whale selling precedes major corrections, so their current behavior warrants caution.
If accumulation resumes, it could signal renewed institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.
12. Stablecoin Market Overview.
Stablecoin Market Cap Expansion
The total stablecoin market cap has reached $229.3B, marking a 7-day increase of +$2.05B (+0.90%).
Over the past 30 days, the market cap has grown by +$4.63B (+2.06%), reflecting increased liquidity entering the crypto market.
USDT maintains dominance at 62.72%, reinforcing its position as the leading stablecoin.
Historically, expansions in stablecoin supply often precede bullish momentum in Bitcoin and the broader market.
13. Support the Newsletter: Exclusive Content & Perks.
Exclusive Content – Additional charts from premium platforms like CryptoQuant, Kingfisher, Santiment, and Intotheblock, available on request.
Telegram Subscribers' Group – Ask me any crypto-related questions directly.
Educational Content – Learn more about on-chain analysis.
Early Access – Get the newsletter immediately after it’s written, no waiting until 6 PM.
Get a 5% discount on an annual subscription below. Thank you to everyone supporting my work!
If you’d like to support my work with a one-time contribution, you can do so through Suppi.
14. Newsletter Issue Summary.
1. Market Overview – Bitcoin dropped -1.9%, Ethereum plunged -11.66%, and overall market sentiment remains volatile.
2. Top 10 News Highlights – Key events include BTC price swings, SEC regulatory shifts, Mt. Gox BTC movement, and growing interest in an XRP ETF.
3. Crypto Market Sentiment – Altcoins suffered losses, signaling short-term selling pressure.
4. Insider Unlocks – Over $122M in token unlocks this week could lead to sell pressure.
5. Coinbase Premium Index – BTC demand in the U.S. is rising, indicating institutional interest.
6. Short-Term Holder Analysis – STHs are underwater (-6.8%), potentially adding to selling pressure.
7. Demand & Supply (STH vs LTH) – New investors are losing interest, while LTHs continue profit-taking.
8. Retail Investor Demand – Retail demand has slowed, possibly leading to a consolidation phase.
9. Apparent Demand – The market remains neutral, fluctuating between demand and supply phases.
10. Miner-to-Exchange Flow – Miners are sending more BTC to exchanges, which could increase market volatility.
11. Whale Holdings – Whale accumulation has slowed, a historical warning sign for corrections.
12. Stablecoin Market Growth – Stablecoin market cap has grown to $229.3B, indicating increased liquidity in the crypto market.
15. Forecast for the Upcoming Week.
1. Potential BTC Consolidation – With weakening retail demand and STH sell pressure, BTC may range between $80-85K before the next move.
2. Stablecoin Liquidity Boost – The rising stablecoin market cap could support crypto growth if demand returns.
3. Watch Miner Activity – If BTC inflows from miners to exchanges increase further, selling pressure may intensify.
4. Impact of Token Unlocks – High unlock percentages (like $MELANIA at 17.5% and $ID at 13.94%) could lead to significant corrections.
5. Altcoin Market Remains Unstable – Ethereum dropped over -11%, and large moves in altcoins are still likely.
Stay alert and track key indicators for deeper market insights. Track upcoming US events for free using the Economic Calendar.
Remember to realize profits regularly.💡
That wraps up this issue. Have a great end to your weekend and an even better week ahead!
If you found this article helpful, leave a like 💙 comment and share it on your social media. 🤝
The next issue will arrive next Sunday at 6 p.m. - check your inbox and spam folder!
This article reflects my personal views and is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk. It includes mentions of WymienBitcoina.pl and affiliate links that may benefit the author.
Best regards
IT Tech