#121 On-chain Insights by IT Tech - Week 13 Bitcoin Analysis & Highlights
Market Volatility Returns: Who’s Selling Bitcoin and What’s Next?
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Table of contents:
Partnership with WymienBitcoina.pl
Top 10 Cryptocurrency News Highlights
Current market situation
Weekly Insider Token Unlocks: Potential Sell Pressure
BTC: MVRV Z-Score Bull vs Bear Market
Who Is Behind Bitcoin’s Recent Sell-Off?
Bitcoin: Potential Liquidations Analysis
Bitcoin ETF Holdings & Netflow Analysis
Stablecoin Market Overview
Support the Newsletter: Exclusive Content & Perks
Newsletter issue summary
Forecast for the Upcoming Week
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2. Top 10 Cryptocurrency News Highlights.
Here are the Top 10 Cryptocurrency News Highlights for March 24-30, 2025, based on the available information and trends as of March 30, 2025.
Bitcoin Price Stabilizes Near $88K Amid Tariff Speculation
Bitcoin traded close to $88,000 this week, with a notable jump on March 24 following reports that President Trump might opt for fewer tariffs than anticipated. Investors had been fleeing risky assets like crypto due to tariff concerns, but this news spurred a temporary recovery.GameStop Doubles Down on Bitcoin as Treasury Reserve Asset
On March 26, U.S. video game retailer GameStop announced it would include Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset to diversify its holdings, echoing MicroStrategy’s approach. This move sparked a nearly 20% surge in its stock price overnight, fueling speculation about a broader corporate crypto adoption trend.Crypto.com SEC Investigation Closes with No Action
On March 28, Crypto.com’s CEO Kris Marszalek, announced that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially closed its investigation into the exchange, initiated with a Wells notice in August 2024. This resolution was seen as a win for the platform amid regulatory scrutiny.Ripple Partners with Chipper Cash for African Payments
Ripple teamed up with Chipper Cash to enable fast, low-cost cross-border payments into Africa using blockchain technology. Announced around March 28, this partnership aims to serve Chipper Cash’s 5 million users across nine countries, highlighting blockchain’s growing role in global finance.BlackRock Expands BUIDL Fund to Solana
On March 25, BlackRock announced that its USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL), which has a near $2 billion market cap, would expand to the Solana blockchain. This move by a financial giant underscored Solana’s rising prominence in the crypto ecosystem.Binance Futures Lists PAXGUSDT Perpetual Contract
Binance Futures launched a PAXGUSDT perpetual contract on March 27, offering up to 75x leverage on Pax Gold (PAXG), a gold-backed cryptocurrency. With 24/7 trading and multi-asset margin options, this listing reflected growing interest in tokenized assets.Ethereum Faces Selling Pressure, Drops Below $2,000
Ethereum (ETH) declined 1.4% on March 29, falling to $1,837 amid increased selling pressure. Analysts noted a “Descending Channel” pattern, with traders disappointed as ETH failed to reclaim the $2,000 mark during the weekend.Trump Media and Crypto.com Launch ETF Collaboration
On March 24, Trump Media & Technology Group partnered with Crypto.com to launch “Made in America”-themed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) later in 2025. This collaboration boosted Trump Media’s stock and hinted at a pro-crypto stance from the administration.SEC Crypto Task Force Holds First Public Meeting
On March 24, the SEC’s crypto task force held its first public roundtable with experts, discussing how securities laws apply to digital assets. This came as the Trump administration signaled plans to revamp crypto regulations, raising debates about potential rule loosening.Ghibli-Themed Memecoins Surge After AI Trend
Memecoins inspired by Studio Ghibli surged this week, sparked by ChatGPT-4’s image generation feature. Posts on X noted OpenAI limiting speeds due to GPU strain, while the trend showcased how AI-driven content can rapidly influence crypto markets.
3. Current market situation.
Current Crypto Market Snapshot (1 week):
• Bitcoin (BTC) is down slightly by 1.1%, trading around $83,415.
• Ethereum (ETH) sees a substantial drop of 8.29%, now at $1,844.
• XRP is significantly down by 8.77%.
• Other leading altcoins also show notable declines: BNB (-2.17%), SOL (-3.95%), DOGE (-6.99%), and ADA (-7.26%).
Only a few assets, like CRO (+5.83%), XDC (+7.28%), EOS (+5.49%), and BDX (+20.61%), are showing positive performance, suggesting isolated bullish activity amid a predominantly bearish sentiment.
This broad market decline implies cautious investor behavior and reduced risk appetite. Investors should carefully monitor critical support levels to gauge potential market stabilization or further downturn risks.
4. Weekly Insider Token Unlocks: Potential Sell Pressure.
Weekly Insider Unlocks: 31 Mar - 6 Apr ’25. Total Unlock: $ 320.9 M+
Highlights:
SUI (1.56%) - $136.12M
ENA (3.25%) - $71.58M
W (24.28%) - $70.40M
OP (1.93%) - $28.14M
DYDX (1.09%) - $6.02M
ZETA (1.79%) - $4.71M
(% indicates circulating supply unlocked)
5. BTC: MVRV Z-Score Bull vs Bear Market
MVRV Z-Score Analysis and Market Situation:
Calculation Method:
The MVRV Z-Score is calculated by subtracting Bitcoin’s realized value (average price investors paid historically) from the market value (current market cap) and dividing this by the standard deviation of the market value. It helps identify whether Bitcoin is significantly over- or undervalued compared to its historical average.
Current Market Situation:
Since March 9, 2025, the indicator has shifted to a “Bear” phase, signaling that Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase from recent highs. Historically, periods marked in red typically indicate downward pressure, consolidation, or correction rather than a sustained bull market continuation.
Interpretation & Outlook:
Current “Bear” coloring suggests Bitcoin may experience further consolidation or downward pressure in the short-term.
This phase often presents opportunities for strategic accumulation rather than signaling a long-term market top.
Compared to past cycles, current conditions resemble mid-cycle corrections rather than full bear market scenarios observed after significant peaks (like those seen post-2017 and post-2021).
Conclusion:
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a healthy correction phase. While short-term volatility and potential declines remain likely, historical patterns indicate that the market has not yet reached a major cyclical top. Investors should remain cautious but consider these corrections as potential accumulation opportunities.
6. Who Is Behind Bitcoin’s Recent Sell-Off?
The recent Bitcoin sell-off is primarily driven by short-term holders (STH)—investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days—realizing losses, highlighting their growing pessimism during the current price decline. On-chain data clearly shows an increased rate of STH selling at a loss (purple bars), indicating short-term investors are capitulating amid heightened market volatility.
Historically, such STH behavior often signals market stress and can mark local bottoms rather than prolonged downturns. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTH) remain largely inactive, underscoring continued long-term confidence. This pattern suggests potential near-term volatility, but also sets the stage for stabilization once panic selling decreases.
7. Bitcoin: Potential Liquidations Analysis.
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Liquidation & Price Analysis – Binance 1h Chart.
Current BTC Price: $83,226.6. Trend & Market Structure:
BTC pulled back from the local top at $88,752, finding support around $82,000.
SuperTrend is bearish on the 1h timeframe, with early reversal indications.
Buy/Sell markers:
Buy signals clustered at $81,100 – $82,000, creating a strong demand base.
Sell signals dominate between $86,500 – $88,000, confirming strong resistance.
Liquidation Levels:
Short Liquidations (Resistance Above Price):
$84,000 – $85,500: Immediate resistance; breaking this could trigger a short squeeze.
$86,500 – $88,000: Major resistance; critical area for bullish continuation.
Long Liquidations (Support Below Price):
$82,000 – $81,000: Current active support, confirmed by recent bounces.
$80,000 – $78,000: Key liquidity zone; loss of this area would trigger deeper declines.
Market Sentiment & Summary:
BTC is attempting a recovery following a significant pullback.
Bulls must reclaim the $84,000 resistance to regain momentum.
Breaking below $82,000 increases downside risk toward $80,000 and lower.
Key Takeaway:
Reclaiming $84,000 confirms bullish momentum short term. Loss of $82,000 suggests a deeper pullback toward $80,000 - $78,000.
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8. Bitcoin ETF Holdings & Netflow Analysis.
Summary of Bitcoin ETF Netflows (March 2025):
Key Observations:
Significant Negative Outflows: Early to mid-March saw substantial ETF outflows, peaking on March 7 at over $445M, correlating strongly with BTC price declines.
Recent Positive Shift: Late March experienced renewed inflows (e.g., March 19 with +$239M), reflecting returning institutional interest and supporting recent price stabilization.
Implications:
Bearish Pressure: Early-month large withdrawals indicated significant institutional caution, triggering price declines.
Potential Recovery Signs: Recent inflows hint at renewed confidence, potentially stabilizing prices in the short term.
Conclusion:
Early March showed strong institutional selling pressure, causing price declines. Recent positive inflows suggest institutions may be regaining confidence, potentially stabilizing or supporting BTC price recovery.
9. Stablecoin Market Overview.
Stablecoin Market Overview (as of Mar 30, 2025):
Total Market Cap: $233.69 billion, up $1.57 billion (+0.68%) over the last 7 days.
Monthly Change: Stablecoin market has increased by $9.55 billion (+4.26%) over the past month, indicating improving liquidity.
USDT Dominance: Currently at 61.82%, showing a minor decrease, reflecting increased diversification into other stablecoins.
Implications:
Continued stablecoin inflows suggest investors are preparing liquidity, potentially signaling upcoming market stability or moderate bullish conditions. Investors should monitor stablecoin flows closely as a leading indicator of market sentiment.
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11. Newsletter Issue Summary.
1. Partnership with WymienBitcoina.pl: Secure crypto trading on WymienBitcoina.pl; use code "IT TECH" for reduced fees.
2. Top 10 Cryptocurrency News Highlights: Bitcoin stabilizes around $88K, GameStop adopts Bitcoin, Crypto.com investigation ends positively, Ripple expands to Africa, BlackRock backs Solana, Binance lists gold-backed crypto, ETH struggles under $2K, Trump Media launches ETF, SEC holds crypto discussions, AI-driven memecoin boom.
3. Current Market Situation: Broad crypto market decline; Bitcoin slightly down, ETH and major altcoins face significant selling pressure, while CRO, XDC, EOS, and BDX show isolated strength.
4. Weekly Insider Token Unlocks: $320.9M token unlock this week; watch SUI ($136M), ENA ($71M), W ($70M), OP ($28M), DYDX ($6M), ZETA ($4M) for potential volatility.
5. BTC: MVRV Z-Score Bull vs Bear Market: MVRV indicator signals "Bear" phase from March 9; indicates healthy correction, likely short-term volatility rather than long-term bear market.
6. Who Is Behind Bitcoin’s Recent Sell-Off?: Short-Term Holders (holding <155 days) primarily selling at losses, indicating panic selling. Long-Term Holders remain stable, suggesting short-term volatility but potential market stabilization ahead.
7. Bitcoin: Potential Liquidations Analysis: BTC pulled back to ~$82K; immediate resistance at $84K-85.5K; major resistance at $86.5K-88K. Critical support at $82K; potential drop to $80K-$78K if lost.
8. Bitcoin ETF Holdings & Netflow Analysis: Significant March ETF outflows correlated with BTC declines; late-March inflows suggest renewed institutional interest and potential price stability.
9. Stablecoin Market Overview: Stablecoin market cap at $233.69B (+4.26% monthly), indicating growing liquidity; minor USDT dominance drop suggests diversification.
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12. Forecast for the Upcoming Week.
BTC volatility expected; critical price range $82K-$84K.
Monitor closely significant token unlocks (SUI, ENA, W) for potential sell pressure.
ETF netflows could signal market direction; recent inflows may support short-term recovery.
Stablecoin inflows suggest potential bullish support; observe closely for liquidity shifts.
Continued STH loss-realization may indicate short-term bottom formation.
Stay alert and track key indicators for deeper market insights. Track upcoming US events for free using the Economic Calendar.
Remember to realize profits regularly.💡
That wraps up this issue. Have a great end to your weekend and an even better week ahead!
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