#126 On-chain Insights by IT Tech - Week 18 Bitcoin Analysis & Highlights

When Everything Screams Bull: Is Bitcoin Ready for the Next Leg Up?

May 04, 2025

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2. Top 10 Crypto & Stock News (April 26 – May 4, 2025.

Bitcoin Nears $100K
BTC touched $97K, its highest in 70 days, boosted by ETF inflows and Saylor’s advocacy. Analysts target $100K in May.
Wall Street Rally on Jobs Beat
S&P 500 erased April losses after a strong jobs report. Unemployment held at 4.2% with 133K new jobs added.
Crypto Stocks Shine in Turbulence
Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and CleanSpark outperformed traditional equities, shrugging off April’s macro volatility.
Bitcoin as Digital Gold?
BTC rose 30% from April lows, decoupling from equities amid trade war fears, reviving its safe-haven narrative.
Tariff Tensions Cool Down
China signaled openness to talks, boosting risk appetite and pushing equities, BTC, and bond yields higher.
Stablecoin Regulation Progresses
A U.S. Senate panel advanced a stablecoin bill, reflecting growing interest in crypto financial integration.
Crypto Market Cap Reclaims $3.1T
Driven by BTC and ETH, the market cap hit a new multi-week high despite weaker alt performance.
Flight from U.S. Equities
Investors moved capital to bonds and international stocks, while crypto stayed strong during the shift.
BTC Price Forecasts Rise Sharply
Top institutions project $167K–$225K BTC in 2025, citing strong post-halving cycles and institutional adoption.
Mixed Macro: PMI Drops, Claims Rise
U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7%, jobless claims hit 241K, shaking markets ahead of Friday’s rebound.

3. Current market situation.

Weekly Market Snapshot & Top News (April 26 – May 4, 2025):

BTC climbs to $97K, pushing toward $100K, fueled by ETF inflows and institutional buying.
Crypto stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy outperform equities amid macro turbulence.
Stablecoin regulation advances in the U.S. Senate, signaling mainstream adoption.
Altcoins under pressure despite broader market rally: notably weak performance across L2s and DeFi.
Tariff easing & strong U.S. jobs data boost equities and market sentiment.

Crypto Heatmap Insights (1-Week Performance)

Bitcoin (BTC): +2.01%, approaching $96K. Still leading but pace slowing.
Ethereum (ETH): +2.49%, outperforming BTC slightly.
HYPE: standout altcoin, +17.68%
Strong gainers: FLR, LTC, TAO, FIL, XMR
Biggest losers: OP (-16.28%), ARB (-11.96%), GALA (-11.39%), XCN, BONK, and IMX.

Sector Trends:

Layer-1s (SOL, NEAR): mixed performance
DeFi (DYDX, AAVE, UNI): weak, mostly red
Memecoins: DOGE struggles this week (-1.26%), BONK -8.4%
Stablecoins: Mostly flat; USDT dominance still above 61%

Sentiment:

Despite BTC’s rally, broad altcoin weakness shows capital concentration in majors. Expect volatility if BTC slows below $100K.

4. Weekly Insider Token Unlocks: Potential Sell Pressure.

Weekly Insider Token Unlocks (May 5–11, 2025). Total Value: $81.9M+

This week brings a lighter wave of unlocks compared to last week, but several tokens carry elevated dilution risks. Here are the key highlights:

Top Unlocks by Dollar Value:

ENA: $55.79M (3.10% of circulating supply) – largest unlock this week, moderate in % terms but still significant in size.
SPEC: $15.42M (42.54%) – massive dilution risk due to a high % of supply being unlocked.
NEON: $3.33M (10.83%) – notable due to the already high unlocked portion (77.83%).

Unlocks with High Dilution Potential:

SPEC: With 42.54% of circulating supply unlocking, this is the most critical one to watch.
MAVIA & GGP: Both have unlocks >9%, introducing possible short-term sell pressure.

Other Observations:

Most of the unlocks are for Founders/Teams & Private Investors, suggesting early investment liquidity may hit markets.
CFG and DEVVE have small unlocks by value but represent first or early stages of supply expansion.

Risk Radar:

High Risk: SPEC, NEON, MAVIA
Moderate: ENA, GGP, AGI
Low: CFG, DEVVE

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5. 🔐 Buy-Side Pressure Builds Up: Are Bulls Regaining Control?

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