#127 On-chain Insights by IT Tech - Week 19 Bitcoin Analysis & Highlights

Retail Returns, Altcoins Awaken, and Bitcoin Marches Toward ATH.

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The 127th issue of On-chain Insights by IT Tech is out! I appreciate your support - over 4,700 subscribers strong! Not subscribed yet? Now's the time to join! 👇

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Table of contents:

1. Partnership with WymienBitcoina.pl

2. Top 10 Crypto & Stock News (May 5 - 11, 2025)

3. Current market situation

4. Weekly Insider Token Unlocks: Potential Sell Pressure

🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers):

5. Altcoin Season Watch: Rotation Still in Early Phase

6. Bitcoin: Supply Excluding Strategy Drops Sharply Post-ETF Era

7. Retail Buyers Are Back – A Bullish Confirmation Signal?

8. Bitcoin ETF Netflows: Capital Inflows Signal Strengthening Demand

9. Stablecoin Market Overview

10. Newsletter issue summary

11. Forecast for the Upcoming Week

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1. Partnership with WymienBitcoina.pl

I'm thrilled to collaborate with WymienBitcoina.pl, founded by Patryk Kempiński of Krypto Raport.

WymienBitcoina.pl offers a secure way to trade over 190 cryptocurrencies and access crypto-related products like wallets and books, supported by expert staff.

To make it even better, I waived my commission to lower fees - use the code IT TECH for additional savings!

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2. Top 10 Crypto & Stock News (May 5 - 11, 2025)

Crypto News

1. Bitcoin Surges Above $100,000: Bitcoin reclaimed the $100,000 mark for the first time since February, driven by a U.S.-U.K. trade deal and optimism over de-escalating U.S.-China tariff tensions. Prices hit $103,000 by May 10, with analysts eyeing a potential retest of the $109,000 high.

2. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Sets Records: BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) recorded its 19th consecutive day of inflows, pulling in $356M on May 9 alone and over $1B since mid-April, signaling strong institutional demand.

3. Coinbase Acquires Deribit for $2.9B: Coinbase acquired crypto options platform Deribit for $2.9B, aiming to dominate the derivatives market. However, its stock remained flat due to disappointing Q1 earnings impacted by tariffs.

4. Altcoin Season Signals Emerge: Bitcoin’s dominance dropped to 63.89%, with Ethereum (up 13%), Solana, and Cardano rallying. Analysts predict an altcoin season, with CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Index rising from 23 to 36.

5. New Hampshire Legalizes Bitcoin Investments: New Hampshire became the first U.S. state to allow up to 5% of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin, sparking speculation about broader state-level adoption.

6. Ethereum’s Strong Week: Ether surged 11% on May 8–9, marking its best week since 2021, with a two-day gain of 29%. Despite a 30% YTD loss, altcoin momentum is building.

Stock Market News

7. Stock Indexes Rally on Trade Optimism: The S&P 500 (+0.6%), Nasdaq (+1.1%), and Dow rose on May 8 after President Trump announced a U.S.-U.K. trade deal, easing tariff concerns. Futures pointed higher on May 10.

8. Constellation Energy Soars: Constellation Energy’s stock jumped after beating Q1 revenue forecasts ($6.79B vs. $5.44B expected), driven by AI-related electricity demand, despite weaker profits.

9. Expedia Stock Falls: Expedia shares dropped after the company warned of weak U.S. travel demand, reflecting broader consumer discretionary sector challenges.

10. Palantir Plunges Post-Earnings: Palantir’s stock fell sharply on May 6 after earnings disappointed investors, contributing to a broader market dip as tariff and Fed decision uncertainties loomed.

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3. Current market situation.

Heatmap of TOP 300 coins (1w)

This week brought another strong wave of green across the crypto market.

• Bitcoin gained +9.23%, trading around ~$104,300

• Ethereum exploded +37.18% – the top performer among major assets

• Solana +10.92%, BNB +12.50%, DOGE +24.16%, ADA +18.01% – strong altcoin rebound

• Projects like HYPE, TON, SHIB, XMR, DOT, AVAX saw double-digit growth

🔻 Declines:

LEO (-8.82%), DEXE (-2.74%), ZETA (-7.27%), and a few stablecoins (BSC-USD, USDT.D, USDC.E) showed mild de-pegs but stayed within normal volatility

📌 Sector View:

• Layer-1s: ETH, SOL, TON, and NEAR saw strong momentum

• Memecoins & AI tokens: speculative flows are intensifying

• Stablecoins: short-term volatility, but the liquidity trend remains upward

Conclusion:
Risk-on sentiment continues with rising altcoin participation.

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4. Weekly Insider Token Unlocks: Potential Sell Pressure.

Weekly Insider Token Unlocks: Potential Sell Pressure.

Weekly Token Unlocks Overview – $209.9M Incoming

This week, over $209M worth of tokens will be unlocked across multiple projects, raising short-term sell pressure risks:

• FTN: $87M (4.66% of supply) – High dilution risk

• APT: $37.76M – Zero previously unlocked, all new supply

• ARB: $33.71M – 1.95% of supply

• STRK: $19.81M – 4.09% of supply

• SEI, APE, CYBER: Moderate size, but high % unlocked

• Watchlist: FTN, APT, STRK, ARB – most likely to impact price

Stay cautious - monitor price reactions closely post-unlock.

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🔐 Premium Insights.

Available only to paid subscribers:

✔️ Deep dive into key on-chain trends
✔️ Altcoin season indicators explained
✔️ Bitcoin’s deflationary path – confirmed
✔️ ETF flows & institutional activity|
✔️ Market structure signals beyond price

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5. 🔐 Altcoin Season Watch: Rotation Still in Early Phase.