Bitcoin Analysis & Highlights - Week 39 #145
Whale Distribution, Stablecoin Growth, and STH Stress Define BTC Range.
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Table of contents:
🆓 Free content (for all free subscribers):
Partnership with Bitomat.com
Top 10 Crypto & Macroeconomic News
Current market situation
New Telegram community for Active Traders
Weekly Token Unlocks
🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers):
📺 Video version summary included (new starting from this week)
BTC & ETH Market Overview: Spot & Futures Market Signals
Loss-Driven Supply From Recent Buyers
Stablecoins Fuel Building
Whale Distribution Pressure
Coinbase Premium Index: Is the US bid back or gone quiet?
BTC: Liquidity map, US bid, ETF flows
Stablecoins Market Overview
Newsletter issue summary
Forecast for the Upcoming Week
1. Partnership Spotlight – Bitomat.com.
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2. Top 10 News in Crypto, Stocks and Macroeconomics (September 22–28, 2025)
Stocks: Nvidia surges on $100B OpenAI pledge, Nasdaq hits record 22,788.98.
Crypto: BTC dips to $108k, analysts still see $200k year-end target. ETH steady above $3.9k.
Macroeconomics: U.S. GDP revised to +3.8% Q2, fueling bets for two more rate cuts.
Stocks: S&P 500 and Dow log third straight records, later dip on H-1B visa fee concerns.
Crypto: Institutional BTC buying slows, BlackRock files for Premium Income ETF.
Macroeconomics: U.S. trade deficit widens to $78.3B in July, raising stagflation risks.
Stocks: CarMax drops 20% on earnings miss, Oracle drags Nasdaq lower.
Crypto: China halts RWA tokenization in Hong Kong, market cap slides −2.2%.
Macroeconomics: Fed split on October cut, PCE inflation data Friday in focus.
Stocks: Concentrix tumbles 22% on weak guidance, Micron upgraded on HBM demand.
💬 Comment:
Macro tailwinds (GDP, rate cut bets) offset equity volatility, while crypto wrestles with U.S. spot flows, ETF signals, and China regulation. BTC remains the pivot between risk-on optimism and risk-off caution.
3. Current market situation.
📊 Market Heat-map 7D:
Short explanation:
Broad risk-off week. BTC ~$109.5k at −5.7% 7D. ETH ~$4.0k at −11.4% 7D. SOL ~$201 at −16.2% 7D. BNB ~$968 at −5.5% 7D. Greens are mostly stablecoins and a few idiosyncratic names.
Analysis:
Breadth and beta: Declines are market wide. Alts fell 2x to 3x more than BTC, which fits a de-risking and deleveraging phase.
Leadership: BTC held up better than majors and L1s, implying rising dominance. ETH underperformance keeps pressure on the L1 complex.
Liquidity stance: Capital parked in stablecoins. Flat or slightly green stablecoin tiles signal sidelining, not rotation into risk.
Leverage reset: Price action is consistent with OI reductions and forced unwinds in high beta names.
Playbook: After such weeks, first recoveries are typically BTC led. For alts, wait for three checks to turn: normalized funding, rebuilt spot demand, and a pause in BTC dominance expansion.
Conclusion:
Base case is BTC-led stabilization before any broad alt relief. Treat fast alt bounces as fade-prone until the three checks confirm.
💬 Comment:
I stay defensive until we see a positive ETF flow streak, a firm U.S. spot bid, and modest 7D growth in the stablecoin base. When these align, rotate selectively from BTC strength into alts with clear higher-low structures.
Watch next:
BTC Dominance 1D and 1W.
Stablecoin market cap change 7D.
ETF net flows daily and weekly.
Funding and OI on ETH, SOL, and top L2s.
4. New Telegram Community for Active Traders.
New! IT Tech Trading Setups group is now live.
Every weekday, I share 1–2 Bitcoin trading setups in this group, based on liquidation levels, market structure, and short-term momentum. No clickbait, just clean, transparent entries with SL and TP. Most setups aim for +10–20% moves.
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Pick your exchange, lock in the bonus, and trade with me. See you inside! 🔥*Disclaimer: Educational content only; not financial advice.
5. Weekly Token Unlocks.
Token Unlocks - Next 5 Days:
What it shows:
Upcoming token releases for OP, SUI, ENA, and IMX with size vs market cap.
Key points:
Optimism (OP): Sep 30 unlock of 32.2M OP (~$21.5M, 1.8% of mcap). Moderate supply increase.
Sui (SUI): Oct 01 unlock of 56.9M SUI (~$180.8M, 1.6% of mcap). Largest in dollar terms, high impact risk.
Ethena (ENA): Oct 02 unlock of 94.2M ENA (~$54.3M, 1.4% of mcap). Medium pressure, ongoing dilution trend.
Immutable (IMX): Oct 03 unlock of 24.5M IMX (~$19.0M, 1.3% of mcap). Low relative impact with ~97.5% already circulating.
Conclusion:
SUI is the key event to watch due to its size and liquidity sensitivity. OP and ENA add moderate pressure. IMX unlock is relatively minor. Net effect is a temporary supply overhang for the first week of October.
💬 Comment:
These events tilt near-term sentiment slightly negative for affected alts. A quick fade of exchange inflows after unlocks would limit the impact, but sustained selling would cap upside until mid-October.
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