Bitcoin and Crypto Market Report - Week 49 #156
US Bid Returns, But Cycle Risk Remains: A Defensive Playbook for December.
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Table of contents:
🆓 Free content (for all free subscribers):
Top 10 Crypto & Macroeconomic News
Current market situation
New Telegram community for Active Traders
🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers):
📺 Video version summary included 📺BTC & ETH Market Overview: Spot & Futures Market Signals
When 100-1000 BTC Wallets Change Behavior, History Rhymes
Whale Positioning: Long Bias Intact, Aggression Dialed Down
U.S. Spot Demand: Coinbase Premium
Bitcoin’s 90K Bounce: Relief Rally or Start of a New Cycle?
BTC: Liquidity map, US bid, ETF flows
Stablecoins Market Overview
Newsletter issue summary
Forecast for the Upcoming Week
1. Top 10 Financial News (Crypto, Stocks, and Macroeconomics) - December 1-7, 2025.
Crypto Market Sell-Off Intensifies Early Week
Bitcoin plunged below 86,000 dollars on December 1, marking its worst day since March, with nearly 1 billion dollars in liquidations amid risk-off sentiment and broader market fears.MicroStrategy Cuts 2025 Earnings Forecast
The largest corporate Bitcoin holder slashed its guidance due to Bitcoin’s weakness, while announcing a 1.44 billion dollar cash reserve; shares dropped, adding pressure on crypto-linked stocks.Bitcoin Rebounds Above 93,000 Mid-Week
Crypto recovered sharply, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing 93,000 dollars, helped by Vanguard’s reversal to allow crypto ETF trading for clients, a major institutional shift.Fed Rate Cut Expectations Surge
Markets priced in roughly an 87 percent chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December Fed meeting, driven by cooling labor data and dovish signals.Mixed Stock Market Performance
Major US indexes started December lower on risk aversion but ended the week with slight gains, with the S&P 500 up about 0.3 percent as tech and crypto-related shares rebounded while yields rose on inflation data.Ulta Beauty Raises Full-Year Guidance
The retailer boosted sales and profit forecasts on strong holiday momentum, with shares jumping around 13 percent to become one of the week’s top performers.PCE Inflation and Consumer Sentiment Data Released
September PCE inflation came in line with expectations, and early December consumer sentiment improved slightly but continued to reflect high-price concerns.Weekly Jobless Claims Hit Multi-Year Low
Jobless claims fell sharply, easing some labor market fears, even as ADP private payrolls showed job losses and announced layoffs rose 54 percent year-to-date.Institutional Crypto Moves Gain Pace
Vanguard embraced crypto ETFs, Bitcoin volatility persisted with warnings of potential “fakeout” rallies, and Ethereum plus altcoins like Solana saw periods of relative outperformance.Broader Macro Uncertainty Weighs on Risk Assets
Delayed US economic data from prior shutdowns complicated the Fed outlook, while global factors such as Japan’s potential rate hike added pressure on risk assets, including crypto carry trades.
💬 Comment:
The first week of December mixed heavy volatility with tentative optimism. Bitcoin started with a violent flush below 86K, dragging crypto equities and MicroStrategy guidance with it, then rebounded above 93K as Vanguard opened the door to crypto ETFs and Fed cut odds climbed toward 90 percent. Stocks eked out small gains in this push-and-pull environment, supported by selective consumer strength at names like Ulta Beauty but weighed down by conflicting labor data and sticky inflation worries. Institutional access to digital assets is clearly expanding, yet macro uncertainty, high leverage, and lingering policy risk mean that both crypto and equities remain highly headline sensitive. The backdrop favors tactical trading and tight risk management rather than assuming that one strong reversal day has already reset the entire cycle.
2. Current market situation.
Market Structure (1W Overview)
Weekly structure says the bounce is running out of fuel: BTC is capped below 100K, dominance stays high, and altcaps keep printing new lows.
Bitcoin at 89.09K (-1.4% w/w), bounce stalling below 100K:
This week's range was 83.80K-94.18K after last week's pullback rally from the low 80Ks. Price failed to hold above 90K and is still well below the broken 100K-105K support zone and the series of lower highs from the 126K peak. The weekly candle looks like a rejection from the mid-90K area rather than follow-through.
Impact: Structure stays broken. The 80K-85K region remains the key downside band. Until BTC can reclaim 95K-100K on a weekly close and then attack 108K-112K, the move from the lows fits a fading relief rally inside a broader downtrend.
BTC.D at 59.22% (-0.3% w/w), dominance flat and elevated:
Dominance traded in a tight 59.1-59.6 percent band and closed almost unchanged. The broader trend from 2023 remains up, with only a mild pullback from the 66 percent high.
Impact: Capital is still concentrated in BTC. With dominance holding near 60 percent, altcoins lack structural leadership, and any brief strength in altcoins is more likely to be used for rotation out than for launching a durable altseason.
TOTAL at 3.0T (-1.1% w/w), pinned under 3.2T-3.3T pivot:
Total crypto market cap moved between 2.83T and 3.18T and finished the week near 3.0T. This is slightly below last week's close and clearly below the 3.2T-3.3T area where the last breakdown started, as well as far from the 4.0T-4.3T distribution top.
Impact: The market has not managed to turn the post-dump bounce into a real recovery. As long as TOTAL fails to reclaim 3.2T-3.3T, the environment stays in de-risking mode, with repeated tests of the 2.8T-2.9T zone still likely.
OTHERS at 206.1B (-4.0% w/w), fresh lows for altcoin basket:
The OTHERS index, which tracks total cap excluding the top majors, traded between 196.8B and 224.5B and closed near the lower end around 206B. This is below last week's 217B and continues the clear downtrend from the 451B high.
Impact: Altcoins remain the weakest part of the market. New lows in OTHERS while BTC holds above its recent bottom show ongoing distribution in smaller names. Liquidity is leaving the long tail, and alt rallies are still being sold.
Structure: BROKEN, RELIEF RALLY FADING.
💬 Comment: With BTC capped below 95-100K, TOTAL stuck around 3.0T, and BTC dominance steady near 60 percent, the weekly structure continues to argue for a defensive stance. The sharp bounce from the 80K area is losing momentum rather than expanding into a new impulse. Until Bitcoin can reclaim and hold at least the 95-100K band on a weekly closing basis and OTHERS stops making new lows, the base case remains a distribution or early bear market environment with choppy price action and limited upside follow-through.
Crypto Heatmap TOP 300 (7D): Alts Bleed, BTC Holds Range
Heatmap shows a market slipping back into distribution: BTC and ETH hold the range while altcoins, especially DeFi and memes, quietly bleed out.
Majors soft, not collapsing: BTC sits around 89.2K (roughly -2 to -3 percent w/w), ETH near 3.0K (slightly positive), while large caps like XRP, ADA, DOGE, LTC, and several L1s are clearly red and only a few, such as BNB or TRX, show modest gains.
Impact: Capital is not in full panic anymore, but leadership is weak, and flows are defensive, with BTC and ETH acting more like parking zones than engines of a new advance.
Breadth deteriorates again: Across the top 300, red tiles dominate the map, with a broad swath of coins in single to double digit losses and only scattered green patches. Stablecoins stay flat as usual.
Impact: The earlier relief rally has lost momentum. Participation is thinning, and the market is sliding back toward distribution rather than expanding into a broad-based uptrend.
DeFi, memes, and small caps hit hardest: Many DeFi tokens, meme coins, and smaller L1s print the darkest reds, with only isolated outliers on the green side.
Impact: High beta risk is being unwound again. Liquidity is leaving the long tail, and weaker projects are underperforming sharply, which is typical of an early bear or late-cycle environment.
Post bounce digestion, not new capitulation: Compared with the full panic heatmap from the prior crash, this week shows more controlled selling, with majors still above their lows but alts giving back much of last week's gains.
Impact: This looks like a digestion phase after a relief rally, not the start of a fresh liquidation wave. However, without renewed strength from BTC on higher time frames, any green in alts is likely to be used for exit rather than accumulation.
💬 Comment:
The updated heatmap confirms that risk appetite has faded again after the initial bounce. Bitcoin and Ethereum are holding a relatively narrow range, but most altcoins are drifting lower, especially high beta segments. Until BTC can reclaim key weekly resistance levels and the map shifts back to broad, persistent green with clear sector leadership, the working view remains that we are in a relief rally that is rolling over inside a larger corrective or early bear phase, not in a confirmed new leg of the bull market.
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