Bitcoin and Crypto Market Report - Week 50 #157
Why Bitcoin’s ‘OG’ Holders Just Sold at Historic Scale – And What It Means for This Cycle.
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Table of contents:
🆓 Free content (for all free subscribers):
Top 10 Crypto & Macroeconomic News
Current market situation
New Telegram community for Active Traders
🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers):
📺 Video version summary included 📺BTC & ETH Market Overview: Spot & Futures Market Signals
What Long‑Term Holder Flow Just Did – And Why It Rarely Happens
Narratives Over Beta: Where Crypto Money Rotated Last Week
U.S. Spot Demand: Coinbase Premium
BTC: Short‑Term Holders – Supply and Profit/Loss Selling
BTC: Retail Investor Demand (0–10K USD Transfers, 30D Change)
Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF Flows - Weekly Overview
Stablecoins Market Overview
Newsletter issue summary
Forecast for the Upcoming Week
1. Top 10 Financial News Stories (Crypto, Stocks & Macroeconomics) from December 8–14, 2025
Federal Reserve Cuts Rates by 25 Basis Points
The Fed lowered its policy rate to 3.5%–3.75% on December 10, its third 25 bps cut in 2025. The move aimed to support a cooling labor market, but with inflation still above the 2% target, the FOMC vote was split 9–3, and guidance hinted at a possible pause in further easing.Stocks Surge After Fed Cut, Then Slip on AI Valuation Fears
US equities jumped immediately after the decision, with the Dow and S&P 500 printing new record highs mid‑week. Later selling in big tech and AI names, including an ~11% drop in Oracle and weakness in Broadcom and semiconductors, pulled the week lower: S&P 500 -0.6%, Nasdaq -1.6%, Dow +1.1%.Bitcoin Rebounds Toward 91K but Volatility Stays High
Bitcoin traded back above roughly 91,000 dollars on Fed‑cut optimism as crypto markets briefly turned green. By the end of the week, it drifted closer to 90,000, mirroring the risk‑off tone in equities and underscoring BTC’s growing correlation with stock indices.MicroStrategy Adds 10,624 BTC to Treasury
MicroStrategy acquired about 10,624 BTC for $ 963 million, lifting its total holdings to more than 660,000 BTC. The purchase reinforced its role as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, doubling down despite elevated price volatility.Dow and S&P 500 Hit Fresh Record Closes Mid‑Week
On December 11, the Dow gained about 1.3% to a new all‑time high, and the S&P 500 also advanced, helped by strength in financials and materials as investors rotated out of crowded tech and AI positions.Crypto Market Cap Holds Above 3 Trillion Dollars
Total crypto market capitalization remained resilient around the 3.1–3.2T range despite intraday pullbacks. Ethereum traded stably near 3,100–3,200 dollars, and institutional interest persisted, including continued work on XRP ETF filings.Inflation and Labor Uncertainty Shape Fed Path
The Fed statement highlighted inflation still “somewhat elevated” and noted gaps in economic data due to earlier reporting disruptions. Projections now imply only one additional rate cut in 2026, underscoring a cautious stance despite recent easing.Tech Weakness Weighs on the Nasdaq
Oracle’s earnings miss and softer guidance from Broadcom sparked renewed concerns over stretched AI valuations, leading to the weakest weekly performance among major US indices for the Nasdaq and a notable drop in semiconductor shares.Bitcoin Conferences and Institutional Adoption Highlights
Events such as Bitcoin MENA in Abu Dhabi showcased ongoing global interest, while Brazil’s largest asset manager advised clients to consider small Bitcoin allocations as a portfolio hedge, adding to the institutional adoption narrative.Market Rotation from Tech to Value and Small Caps
With expectations for aggressive rate cuts fading and AI valuations questioned, investors shifted toward financials, materials, and smaller companies. The Russell 2000 pushed to new highs, reflecting a broader value and cyclicals bid at the expense of mega‑cap tech.
💬 Comment:
This week, dovish monetary policy blended with lingering macro and sector risks. The Fed’s third cut of the year initially boosted risk assets, but persistent inflation, patchy data, and renewed skepticism around AI‑driven earnings tempered enthusiasm. Crypto tracked equities, with Bitcoin rebounding yet failing to break decisively higher, while the overall market cap held above 3T on the back of steady institutional interest. Markets remain highly data‑dependent, and the interplay between cautious Fed guidance, tech re‑rating, and growing but selective crypto adoption will likely drive volatility into year‑end and 2026.
2. Current market situation.
Market Structure (1W Overview)
Weekly structure still points to a tired bounce inside a bearish regime: BTC is capped below 100K, dominance is high and alts are pinned near their lows.
Weekly structure remains heavy: BTC is stuck below 100K, dominance near 60% and altcoin caps just above their lows.
Bitcoin at 90.13K (+1.1% w/w), bounce still capped below 100K
This week’s range was about 89.26K–94.59K. Price again failed to clear the mid‑90K area and sits well under the broken 100K–105K zone and the 126K peak. The last three weekly candles form a tight consolidation after the sharp drop from 120K+, not a clear reversal. The 80K–85K region stays key support, while 95K–100K is the first serious resistance band; below it, the move off the lows still looks like a stalled relief rally in a broader downtrend.
BTC.D at 59.24% (flat w/w), dominance high and stable
Dominance traded between roughly 59.0% and 59.6% and closed mid‑range. The larger trend since 2023 is still up, with only a modest pullback from the 66% high. Capital remains concentrated in BTC, with dominance anchored around 60%, altcoins lack structural leadership, and strength in altcoins is more likely to be used for rotation out than for a lasting altseason.
TOTAL at 3.04T (≈flat w/w), holding 3T but under 3.2T–3.3T pivot
Total crypto market cap ranged between about 2.83T and 3.2T and finished near 3.04T, little changed from last week. It remains clearly below the 3.2T–3.3T breakdown area and far from the 4.0T–4.3T distribution peak. The market is stable above 3T but shows no new impulse; without a reclaim of 3.2T–3.3T, the backdrop stays de‑risking with possible retests of 2.8T–2.9T.
OTHERS at 208.0B (+0.9% w/w), altcoin basket near support
The OTHERS index (cap ex‑majors) traded between roughly 203B and 221B and closed around 208B, just above last week and still close to recent lows, far below the 451B high. Altcoins remain the weakest segment: this small green week looks more like a pause at support than a trend change, with thin liquidity and rallies in the long tail still being sold.
Structure: BROKEN, SIDEWAYS CONSOLIDATION BELOW RESISTANCE
💬 Comment: With BTC below 95–100K, TOTAL capped under 3.2T and dominance steady near 60%, the weekly picture still favours a defensive stance. The bounce from 80K has turned into sideways consolidation rather than a new leg up, while alts barely hold above their lows. Until BTC can close and hold above 95–100K and OTHERS start posting higher lows, the base case remains distribution or early bear conditions with choppy price action and limited upside follow‑through.
Crypto Heatmap TOP 300 (7D): Sideways Chop, Selective Rotation
The heatmap shows a neutral market: majors range‑bound, altcoins rotating in both directions, no clear risk‑on yet.
Majors flat to mildly green:
BTC is near 90.1K (about +1% w/w) and ETH around 3.1K (+2–3%), with BNB and SOL slightly up and XRP roughly flat. No large double‑digit moves among the biggest coins. Majors act as parking zones rather than trend leaders.
Breadth mixed, not clearly bullish:
The top 300 is almost evenly split between green and red tiles, with most moves in the low single digits and only a few standouts. Stablecoins are flat. Participation is there, but not decisive, typical of consolidation and rotation rather than strong new inflows.
DeFi, memes and L1s: pockets of rotation:
Some L1s, DeFi tokens, and memes are solidly green, others clearly red, even within the same sectors. Capital is moving very selectively, favouring liquid, narrative‑driven names while weaker projects still get sold.
Post‑crash digestion, not a new leg up:
Compared with the earlier panic map, selling is more balanced, and majors are off the lows, but there is no broad, deep green that usually marks the start of a major uptrend. The market is digesting the prior dump inside a range; bounces and dips are being traded, not yet confirming a full trend reversal.
💬 Comment:
This 7‑day heatmap aligns with the weekly structure: BTC and ETH are capped below key resistance, dominance remains high, and altcoins churn in a rotation‑heavy environment. Until BTC reclaims 95–100K on the weekly chart and breadth turns persistently green with clear sector leadership, conditions look like range trading after a relief rally, not the beginning of a strong new bull leg.
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