Bitcoin and Crypto Market Report - Week 51 #158
This market phase is defined by flows, not candles.
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Table of contents:
🆓 Free content (for all free subscribers):
Top 10 Crypto & Macroeconomic News
Current market situation
New Telegram community for Active Traders
🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers):
📺 Video version summary included 📺BTC & ETH Market Overview: Spot & Futures Market Signals
When the Crowd Leaves the Market
Sector Performance Snapshot: Defensive Rotation Dominates
Elevated Exchange Activity Signals Distribution
Demand Growth Turns Fragile
U.S. Spot Demand: Coinbase Premium
Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF Flows - Weekly Overview
Stablecoins Market Overview
Newsletter issue summary
Forecast for the Upcoming Week
1. Top 10 Financial News Stories (Crypto, Stocks & Macroeconomics) from December 15–21, 2025:
Federal Reserve Cuts Rates by 25 bps in a Split Vote
The Fed lowered its policy rate to 3.5%–3.75%, marking the third cut in 2025. However, the decision exposed deep internal divisions, with some members pushing for a larger cut and others preferring no cut at all. Forward guidance remained cautious, with inflation risks keeping expectations for further easing in 2026 limited.
Crypto Market Remains Under Pressure as Bearish Narratives Grow
Bitcoin traded mostly between $85K and $89K, still deeply negative on the year. Ethereum and most altcoins followed lower, while several crypto treasury companies faced growing unrealized losses after the October selloff. Long-duration risk appetite in crypto remains weak.
Bank of Japan Hikes Rates, Yen Continues to Weaken
The BOJ raised rates to their highest level in roughly three decades. Despite the hike, the yen depreciated further, triggering volatility across global bond markets and contributing to rising US Treasury yields.
Tech and AI Stocks Recover Late in the Week
After early weakness, US equities rebounded into Friday. Nvidia, Oracle, and Micron led the bounce, helping the S&P 500 finish up about +0.1% w/w and the Nasdaq +0.4% w/w. The rebound looked tactical rather than conviction-driven.
Bitcoin Tests Key Support Near 85K
BTC drifted closer to the 85K area, where technical selling and stop-losses accelerated downside moves. While momentum remains weak, analysts noted that broader macro hedges like gold limited immediate panic selling.
Equities Search for a Santa Claus Rally
December started weaker than historical averages, but hopes for a year-end bounce persisted. Financials, value stocks, and small caps outperformed, while mega-cap growth lagged. The S&P 500 remains up roughly 15% YTD.
Corporate Earnings Divergence: Nike Falls, Micron Rallies
Nike shares sold off sharply on weak China demand and tariff-related pressure. In contrast, Micron surged after issuing a strong outlook tied to sustained AI-driven chip demand.
Crypto ETF Flows Rotate Away from BTC and ETH
Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows during the week, while newer products tied to Solana and XRP attracted modest inflows. The data points to rotation within crypto exposure rather than fresh capital entering the space.
US Inflation and Labor Data Keep Fed Cautious
Delayed macro data showed a cooling but not collapsing labor market. Inflation remains sticky enough to keep the Fed in wait-and-see mode, reinforcing expectations for only limited rate cuts next year.
Global Macro Headwinds Persist
China reported weaker factory output and retail sales, adding to concerns about global growth. Ongoing trade and tariff uncertainty continued to weigh on risk sentiment across both equities and crypto.
💬 Comment:
This week reinforced a familiar theme: monetary policy is easing, but not enough to reignite broad risk-on behavior. Equities managed a late rebound, supported by selective sector rotation and AI-linked earnings optimism, while crypto failed to attract meaningful new demand. With rate cuts largely priced in, liquidity improving only gradually, and macro risks still unresolved, markets remain fragile and highly selective. The current environment favors tactical positioning and capital preservation rather than aggressive beta exposure.
2. Current market situation.
Market Structure (1W Overview):
Weekly structure still points to a tired bounce inside a bearish regime: BTC remains capped below major resistance, dominance stays elevated and altcoins are pinned near their lows.
Weekly structure remains heavy: BTC is stuck below the broken 100K zone, dominance hovers near 60% and the broader altcoin market shows no structural leadership.
Bitcoin at ~88.6K (≈flat w/w), bounce still capped below 95K–100K
This week’s range was roughly 84.5K–90.4K. Price again failed to sustain any move above the low-90K area and remains well below the broken 95K–100K support zone and the 120K–126K cycle peak. The recent weekly candles form a tight consolidation after the sharp drop from the highs, not a reversal pattern. The 80K–85K area remains the key support, while 95K–100K is the first serious resistance band. Below it, the move off the lows still looks like a stalled relief rally within a broader topping structure.
BTC.D at ~59.6% (slightly up w/w), dominance high and stable
Dominance traded roughly between 59.0% and 60.5% and closed mid-range. The broader trend since 2023 remains upward, with only a shallow pullback from the 66% peak. Capital remains concentrated in BTC, altcoins lack structural leadership, and any strength in alts continues to look more like rotation and distribution rather than the start of a sustained altseason.
TOTAL at ~2.96T (slightly down w/w), holding 3T area but below key pivot
Total crypto market cap ranged between roughly 2.82T and 3.05T and finished just under 3.0T, slightly lower on the week. It remains clearly below the 3.2T–3.3T breakdown zone and far from the 4.0T–4.3T distribution peak. The market is stable above the 2.8T area but shows no new impulse; without a reclaim of 3.2T–3.3T, the backdrop remains de-risking with downside risk toward 2.8T–2.9T.
OTHERS at ~200B (down w/w), altcoin basket near support
The OTHERS index (market capitalization excluding major stocks) traded between approximately 183 billion and 210 billion and closed near 200 billion. It is currently sitting just above key support levels and is still close to recent lows, significantly below the 451 billion peak. Altcoins continue to be the weakest segment. Recent price action suggests a pause at support rather than a trend change. Additionally, thin liquidity and rallies in the long tail are being sold off.
Structure: BROKEN, SIDEWAYS CONSOLIDATION BELOW RESISTANCE
💬 Comment:
With BTC still below 95K–100K, TOTAL capped under 3.2T, and dominance holding near 60%, the weekly picture continues to favor a defensive stance. The bounce from the 80K area has transitioned into sideways consolidation rather than a new leg higher, while altcoins barely hold above their lows. Until BTC can close and hold above 95K–100K on the weekly and OTHERS start forming higher lows, the base case remains late-cycle distribution or early bear conditions, characterized by choppy price action and limited upside follow-through.
Crypto Heatmap TOP 300 (7D): Broad red, weak breadth, no clear leadership
The heatmap shows a risk-off week across the board: majors are red, altcoins are broadly under pressure, and green pockets are isolated and short-lived.
Majors are firmly negative:
BTC is down around −1.9%, ETH roughly −4.1%, with SOL, BNB, XRP, and DOGE all posting mid to high single-digit losses. There are no large-cap leaders absorbing risk. Majors are not acting as safe havens; they are participating in the downside.
Breadth clearly bearish:
The vast majority of the top 300 is red, with losses spread across sectors and market caps. Green tiles are sparse and mostly small, indicating weak participation and poor follow-through. This is not selective rotation; it is broad de-risking.
Altcoins hit harder than BTC:
Mid- and lower-cap alts show deeper drawdowns, many in the −10% to −25% range. Liquidity looks thin, and sell pressure dominates across DeFi, L2s, infra, and memecoins alike. Any short-term bounces are quickly sold.
No sector leadership:
Unlike constructive consolidations, where one or two sectors hold green, this map lacks a clear theme. Even traditionally defensive or narrative-driven areas fail to sustain gains, reinforcing the view that capital is exiting risk rather than rotating within crypto.
💬 Comment:
This 7-day heatmap confirms the weekly structure: downside pressure is broad-based, participation is weak, and there is no emerging leadership. With BTC below key resistance and dominance still elevated, altcoins remain vulnerable and act as the release valve for risk. Until the heatmap starts showing sustained green clusters and sector leadership, conditions favor capital preservation and tactical trading, not accumulation.
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