Bitcoin and Crypto Market Report - Week 2 #161
Beneath the rebound, participation fades and risk appetite stays constrained.
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Table of contents:
🆓 Free content (for all free subscribers):
Top 10 Crypto & Macroeconomic News
General Market Update
New Telegram community for Active Traders
🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers):
📺 Deep dive on-chain analysis and video version summary included ⤵️
BTC & ETH Market Overview: Spot & Futures Market Signal
Crypto Market Sector Performance
Retail Demand Fails to Rebuild
LTH Spending Breakdown: Exchange Flows vs Real Distribution
Cost Basis Alignment: Weak Hands Under Pressure
U.S. Spot Demand: Coinbase Premium
Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF Flows - Weekly Overview
Stablecoins Market Overview
Newsletter issue summary
Forecast for the Upcoming Week
1. Macro & Market News Recap (Jan 5, 2026 - Jan 11, 2026 ):
Macro and news:
The first full trading week of 2026 delivered a short-term relief bounce across risk assets, but failed to change the broader macro regime. Equities pushed to new highs on rotation into value and small caps, while crypto rebounded tactically without confirming a trend shift.
U.S. stock indices benefited from sector rotation rather than broad risk appetite, with industrials, materials, and value outperforming as mega-cap tech and AI showed early fatigue. In crypto, BTC bounced from the low $90K area toward mid-range resistance, ETH held up relatively well after the Fusaka upgrade, and XRP briefly outperformed on ETF-driven flows before momentum cooled.
Macro data reinforced caution. December payrolls undershot expectations despite a lower unemployment rate, and the Fed reiterated a limited easing path for 2026. Financial conditions remain restrictive, supporting range-bound markets rather than sustained expansion.
💬 Comment:
Macro and news flow continue to support tactical rebounds, not a renewed risk-on regime. Equity strength is rotation-driven, not demand-driven, while crypto remains dependent on selective flows rather than broad participation. With the Fed signaling patience and growth data softening at the margin, rallies should still be treated as counter-trend moves until confirmed by stronger liquidity, demand, and follow-through across risk assets.
2. General Market Update.
Bitcoin is stabilizing after a sharp correction, but the broader market structure remains fragile. BTC is holding above key support, while TOTAL and OTHERS continue to trade well below prior highs, confirming a defensive, BTC-led environment rather than a broad recovery.
Structure breakdown:
BTC is trading around $90.7K, down from the cycle high near $126.2K, but still holding well above major higher-timeframe support. This keeps BTC in a corrective phase within a larger uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
BTC dominance sits near 59.1%, below the cycle peak at 66.0%, but remains elevated. This suggests risk is still concentrated in BTC, with limited spillover into altcoins.
The total crypto market cap is holding near $3.06T, significantly below the recent high at $4.27T. While downside momentum has slowed, there is no structural reclaim yet, keeping the market in a repair phase.
OTHERS (altcoins excluding BTC and ETH) trade around $217B, far below the $451B peak. This confirms that altcoins remain the primary pressure valve for risk, with lower highs and weak follow-through on rebounds.
💬 Comment:
This structure aligns with a late-cycle or early-bear repair regime. BTC is absorbing capital and stabilizing, but dominance remains high, and altcoins’ market structure is still broken. Until TOTAL reclaims the $3.3–3.5T zone and OTHERS can build sustained higher lows, strength should be treated as tactical rather than the start of a new expansion phase. For now, BTC leads defensively, while altcoins remain vulnerable to further volatility.
Crypto Heatmap TOP 300 (7D): Weak Rebound, No Follow-Through
The 7-day heatmap shows a fragile and uneven rebound attempt. Losses still dominate across majors and altcoins, while green pockets are scattered and lack sector-wide leadership, pointing to corrective price action rather than a trend reversal.
What stands out this week:
BTC is down roughly −0.9%, holding near $90.6K, confirming consolidation rather than strength. ETH underperforms again at −1.3%, reinforcing relative weakness versus BTC. Most large caps remain red or flat, with no clear defensive leaders absorbing risk.
Breadth remains poor. The majority of the top 300 assets are still negative, with declines spread across DeFi, infra, L2s, and memecoins. Green tiles exist but are isolated and short-lived, driven by idiosyncratic moves rather than sustained rotation.
Altcoins continue to act as the pressure valve. Many mid and lower caps show deeper weekly losses, frequently in the −5% to −15% range, highlighting thin liquidity and fast distribution into any bounce.
There is no dominant sector leadership. Even areas that briefly turn green fail to cluster meaningfully, which keeps the broader market in a risk-off posture rather than a selective risk-on phase.
💬 Comment:
This heatmap confirms a market still stuck in repair mode. Participation is weak, leadership is absent, and downside pressure remains broad-based. As long as BTC consolidates below key resistance and dominance stays elevated, altcoins remain structurally vulnerable. For now, strength looks tactical and reactive, not the start of a sustainable expansion.
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