Bitcoin and Crypto Market Report - Week 6 #165
Early Bear Market Signals Emerge Across Flows and On-Chain Data.
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The 165th issue of On-chain Insights by IT Tech is out! I appreciate your support, over 5,000 subscribers strong!
🎥 YouTube Channels + Website Launch.
After years of publishing on-chain research and growing the Polish IT Tech channel, I’m taking the next step.
1️⃣ New English YouTube Channel - Onchain_Insights by IT Tech
2️⃣ I reactivated my Polish YouTube channel.
3️⃣ New Website - btc-analysis.com
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Table of contents:
🆓 Free content (for all free subscribers):
New Telegram community for Active Traders
Top 10 Crypto & Macroeconomic News
🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers):
📺 Deep-dive on-chain market structure analysis + weekly video overview ⤵️
General Market Update
BTC & ETH Spot & Futures Market Structure
Crypto Market Sector Performance
Bitcoin Production Cost Becomes a Key Stress Zone
Weak Hands Exit While Long-Term Holders Wait
Lack of Fresh Capital Reinforces Bear Conditions
U.S. Spot Demand: Coinbase Premium
Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF Flows - Weekly Overview
Stablecoins Market Overview
Newsletter issue summary
Forecast for the Upcoming Week
1. New Telegram Community for Active Traders.
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2. Top 10 Market News: Crypto, Stocks & Macro (February 2–8, 2026):
Markets entered February with rising divergence. Crypto experienced forced deleveraging and structural outflows, while equities remained resilient. The gap between risk assets widened, highlighting a shift from expansion toward capital preservation rather than broad risk-taking.
Bitcoin Sells Off to 9-Month Lows: Bitcoin broke below $70k and briefly traded in the $60k–$75k range, triggering over $5B in liquidations.
U.S. Equities Rally Despite Macro Noise: U.S. stocks opened February strongly, with the Dow +1.1% and the S&P 500 +0.5%, driven by rotation into small caps and semiconductors.
Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair: The nomination raised expectations of a more hawkish Fed, increasing volatility across metals, FX, and crypto markets.
Federal Reserve Keeps Rates Unchanged: The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Markets now price ~85% odds of no change in March.
U.S. Labor Market Shows Further Cooling: December payrolls added only 50k jobs, confirming slowing labor momentum.
Gold and Silver See Sharp Sell-Off: Silver collapsed by more than 30% in one session, the largest drop since 1980, as rate expectations were repriced.
Crypto Liquidations Accelerate: Over $5B in liquidations hit crypto markets. Bitcoin ETFs recorded ~$750M in outflows, while ETH and SOL fell 20%–35%.
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves Modestly: Sentiment rose to 57.3, while long-term inflation expectations edged up to 3.4%.
Institutional Crypto Access Expands: UBS announced BTC and ETH trading for select private banking clients in Switzerland.
Geopolitical Risks Remain Elevated: U.S.–Iran tensions, shutdown risks, and global trade frictions continue to weigh on markets.
💬 Comment:
This week’s news flow highlights a clear split between asset classes. While equities continue to absorb macro uncertainty, crypto is reacting more directly to liquidity withdrawal, ETF outflows, and deleveraging. The absence of sustained dip-buying in crypto contrasts with resilience in stocks, reinforcing the idea that crypto is currently in an adjustment phase rather than a synchronized risk-on environment.
3. General Market Update.
The market has shifted from expansion into a clear distribution phase, with downside momentum spreading beyond Bitcoin into the broader crypto complex.
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