Bitcoin and Crypto Market Report - Week 7 #166
Capitulation or Just the First Phase?
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Table of contents:
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New Telegram community for Active Traders
Top 10 Crypto & Macroeconomic News
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General Market Update
BTC & ETH Spot & Futures Market Structure
Crypto Market Sector Performance
Key Cost Basis Levels for Bitcoin
Holder Behavior: STH SOPR
Realized Profit/Loss: Market Stress Monitor
U.S. Spot Demand: Coinbase Premium
Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF Flows - Weekly Overview
Stablecoins Market Overview
Newsletter issue summary
Forecast for the Upcoming Week
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2. Top 10 Market News: Crypto, Stocks & Macro (Feb 9-15, 2026).
Markets split this week: equities hit historic milestones while crypto absorbed the aftermath of last week's forced deleveraging, with Bitcoin stabilizing but failing to reclaim structural levels.
Bitcoin Rebounds Amid Volatility: After touching a 15-month low near $60K earlier in the week, BTC stabilized in the $70K-$75K range by mid-February. Institutional interest provided a floor, but the recovery lacks structural confirmation.
Dow Surpasses 50,000 Milestone: The Dow Jones closed above 50,000 for the first time on Feb 9, jumping 2.5% to 50,115. The S&P 500 rose 2% to 6,932 before pulling back on AI-related concerns in financial stocks.
US CPI Data Shows Persistent But Cooling Inflation: January CPI (released Feb 13) confirmed continued but moderating price pressures. Markets now price near-zero probability of a March rate cut, keeping the Fed in wait-and-see mode.
Ethereum and Altcoins Attempt Recovery: ETH climbed back above $2,000 after last week’s selloff. Select utility tokens (SKY, PYTH) showed relative strength, though broad altcoin recovery remains fragile.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Post Weekly Gains: S&P 500 ended the week +0.5% at 6,965, Nasdaq +0.9%. Rebounds in tech and industrials drove performance, with indices approaching all-time high territory again.
US Labor Market Shows Further Softening: January non-farm payrolls came in weak, reinforcing the narrative of slowing labor momentum. Average hourly earnings moderated, keeping Fed easing bets alive for H2 2026.
Gold Breaks $5,000: Spot gold rose to $5,029/oz (+1.2% WoW), while silver hit $80/oz. Safe-haven demand continues to outperform crypto on a risk-adjusted basis during this uncertainty phase.
Retail Sales Data Reflects Resilient Consumer: December retail sales (released Feb 10) beat expectations despite softening labor signals - a mixed macro picture that complicates Fed rate path projections.
Institutional Crypto Exposure Expands: Goldman Sachs disclosed $2.36B in crypto holdings (BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL). Binance and Franklin Templeton expanded off-exchange collateral infrastructure using tokenized funds.
Global Growth Forecasts and Tariff Risks: Moody’s projects US GDP at 2.5% for 2026 but flags tariff-driven inflation as a key risk. The EU proposed banning crypto transactions with Russia to enforce compliance with sanctions.
💬 Comment:
This week’s macro backdrop is structurally split. Equities are at or near all-time highs, gold is breaking multi-year resistance levels, and the labor market is softening in a way that keeps hopes of a rate cut alive for later in 2026. Crypto, meanwhile, is absorbing the damage from last week’s liquidation cascade rather than participating in the risk-on move seen in equities. The divergence between Dow 50K and BTC struggling at $70K is a clear signal that crypto is in its own adjustment cycle, not yet synchronized with the broader risk-on environment. Until institutional flows into crypto ETFs stabilize and on-chain demand metrics recover, macro tailwinds alone are insufficient to drive structural recovery.
3. General Market Update.
The market has printed a decisive weekly reversal from the $65K lows, but price remains structurally broken below all major cycle support levels - the bounce has not repaired the damage.
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Current state:
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