Bitcoin and Crypto Market Report - Week 8 #167

Five indicators, one conclusion: the cycle has turned.

The structure is clear. Here's what this week's data shows. The 167th issue of On-chain Insights by IT Tech.

---

📺 Stay Connected:

🎥 YouTube: Onchain_Insights - English | IT Tech PL - Polish | Hub: btc-analysis.com

---

Table of contents:

🆓 Free content (for all free subscribers):

1. New Telegram community for Active Traders

2. Top 10 Crypto & Macroeconomic News

🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers):
📺 Deep-dive on-chain market structure analysis + weekly video overview ⤵️

3. General Market Update

4. BTC & ETH Spot & Futures Market Structure

5. Crypto Market Sector Performance

6. Key Cost Basis Levels for Bitcoin

7. How Close Is Bitcoin to a Full Capitulation Phase?

8. Short-Term Holders Are Selling at a Loss - How Bad Is It?

9. The Bull Market Is Officially Over - What the Cycle Indicator Shows

10. U.S. Spot Demand: Coinbase Premium

11. Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF Flows - Weekly Overview

12. Stablecoins Market Overview

13. Newsletter issue summary

14. Forecast for the Upcoming Week

---

1. New Telegram Community for Active Traders.

I share structured Bitcoin and Ethereum trade ideas aligned with the on-chain framework used in this report. Access is free via one of the partner exchanges:

• BingX (with KYC)

• MEXC (no KYC, available in the US & UK)

• BloFin (no KYC, available in the US & UK)

👉 Full instructions and instant access:

*Disclaimer: Educational content only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

---

2. Top 10 Market News: Crypto, Stocks & Macro (Feb 9-15, 2026).

Tariff volatility dominated the macro landscape this week, while crypto showed relative resilience and regulatory scrutiny

1. Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Emergency Tariffs: 6-3 ruling invalidated IEEPA-based tariffs, creating potential liability for billions in refunds and significant trade policy uncertainty.

2. Trump Raises Global Tariffs to 15%: Invoking Section 122 authority immediately after the ruling, Trump escalated global tariffs from 10% to 15%, deepening trade tensions.

3. Crypto Shows Resilience Against Tariff Shock: Despite equity selloffs, Total3 dipped less than 1% - a notable divergence from traditional risk asset behavior.

4. $100M Crypto Laundering Scheme Uncovered: Authorities revealed a $100M operation using shell companies, offshore accounts, and major exchanges, reinforcing ongoing regulatory scrutiny.

5. Jupiter Governance Vote on Net Zero Emissions: Jupiter holders voted Feb 17-22 on reducing token incentives to achieve net-zero emissions while preserving Q1 2026 programs.

6. $335M Bitcoin Whale Transfer Precedes Macro Shock: Large BTC transfer occurred ahead of weak Q4 GDP data and the Supreme Court ruling, with BTC struggling to hold $70K.

7. U.S. Stocks Mixed on Soft Inflation and AI Concerns: Dow and S&P 500 posted marginal gains, Nasdaq declined. Monthly CPI +0.2%, AI-sector concerns drove tech rotation.

8. Iranian Naval Tensions Add Geopolitical Pressure: Strait of Hormuz maneuvers on Feb 18 pushed gold to $5,000/oz and oil higher, compounding tariff-driven market uncertainty.

9. AI Infrastructure Bond Issuance Hits $2.5T in 2026: Alphabet raised $32B as part of $121B issued by leading AI firms in 2025, with 2026 corporate bond issuance projected at $2.5T.

10. UK Wage Growth Slumps, Rate Cut Odds Rise: British wage growth fell to 4.2% in Q4 2025 with unemployment at 5.2%, solidifying expectations for Bank of England cuts in March and November.

💬 Comment:

Crypto's resilience against the tariff shock is a marginal positive, but single-event divergence does not constitute structural recovery. Gold at $5,000/oz and rising oil reflect defensive rotation that has not extended into crypto. Until ETF flows stabilize and on-chain demand metrics recover, macro events remain volatility catalysts, not structural drivers.

---

3. General Market Update.

Bitcoin closed the week below $70K for the second consecutive week, confirming that last week's relief bounce has not produced structural repair - the market remains in a broken state with downside pressure intact.

---

🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers).

🧠 If you’re still reading only the free section, you’re seeing price behavior, not the structure driving risk and positioning.

In the premium part, I break down the on-chain flows, cost bases, and positioning that actually drive Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Premium is the weekly framework behind Bitcoin market structure when flows, liquidity, and positioning matter more than headlines.

Current state: