Bitcoin and Crypto Market Report - Week 12 #171
The Fed cleared the runway, BTC hit $76K, miners sent $2.5 billion to exchanges in a single day, and the ETF cost basis held as resistance. Every ceiling survived its closest test.
A Fed relief rally, a $76K intraweek high, and the sharpest single-day miner selling event of this bear phase - all in the same week. The 171st issue of On-chain Insights by IT Tech.
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Table of contents:
🆓 Free content (for all free subscribers):
New Telegram community for Active Traders
Top 10 Crypto & Macroeconomic News
🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers):
📺 Deep-dive on-chain market structure analysis ⤵️
General Market Update
BTC & ETH Spot & Futures Market Structure
Crypto Market Sector Performance
Key Cost Basis Levels for Bitcoin
Every Time Short-Term Holders Turned Profitable Since the ATH, It Was a Trap
Bitcoin Spent Five Months Falling While Equities Climbed - Now They're Both Correcting Together
The Day Bitcoin Hit $76K, Miners Sent $2.5 Billion to Exchanges
U.S. Spot Demand: Coinbase Premium
Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF Flows - Weekly Overview
Stablecoins Market Overview
Newsletter issue summary
Forecast for the Upcoming Week
1. New Telegram Community for Active Traders.
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2. Top 10 Market News: Crypto, Stocks & Macro (March 16–22, 2026).
The Fed held rates and signaled only one cut for 2026 - markets took it as relief, BTC hit $76K, and for the first time this cycle, equities and crypto moved in the same direction for reasons that actually mattered.
Fed Holds at 4.25%–4.50%; Dot Plot Projects One Cut in 2026. Powell cited sticky core inflation and oil effects, keeping balance sheet runoff unchanged. The initial sell-off reversed into a relief rally as the tone was read as less hawkish than feared. Mid-2026 remains the earliest realistic easing window.
Bitcoin Hits $76K Before Settling Near $74K (+9% WoW). Post-Fed momentum pushed BTC to a new 2026 high. BTC dominance reached 56%, total crypto market cap briefly exceeded $2.65T, ETH crossed $2,350, and altcoins participated broadly for the first time this cycle.
U.S. Equities Snap Three-Week Losing Streak; Nasdaq +3.1%, S&P +2.2%. Tech and growth names led on the softer rate outlook. VIX dropped below 19. Energy lagged as oil eased. The first equity recovery week of the month reduces the cross-asset headwind that has been compressing crypto valuations.
CPI Prints Hotter at 3.5% YoY (Core 3.3%). Shelter and energy drove the upside surprise. 2-year Treasury yields briefly exceeded 4.1% before retreating. The data reinforces the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance and keeps the macro backdrop structurally restrictive despite the policy tone relief.
Iran Diplomatic Overtures Pull WTI to $91–$93. Back-channel talks eased Strait of Hormuz fears, partially reversing last week’s $119 spike. Lower energy costs reduced stagflation pressure across assets and contributed to the equity rebound.
Senate Banking Committee Advances Crypto Market Structure Bill. A bipartisan vote cleared stablecoin, custody, and DeFi provisions. Industry groups cited it as the most significant regulatory step since 2024. Regulatory clarity is a structural tailwind, though it does not constitute on-chain demand.
Solana Surges 14% on ETF Filing Speculation; SOL Tops $210. Multiple issuers reportedly updated 19b-4 forms. Broader altcoin index rose 7% - the first meaningful altcoin participation week of this cycle. Single-asset strength with sector follow-through carries more weight than isolated moves.
Microsoft and Alphabet Post AI-Driven Earnings Beats; $300B Combined Market Cap Added. Cloud and AI revenue far exceeded forecasts, helping anchor the tech-led equity recovery. Earnings season continues as a macro variable for the upcoming week.
Retail Sales Contract 0.4% MoM; Consumer Confidence at 12-Month Low. Weak discretionary spending data reinforces concerns about a GDP downgrade. The Fed’s balanced tone prevented a deeper risk-off move, but the consumption picture remains a structural growth risk.
Trump Pauses Select Tariffs on EU and Japan for 90 Days. Executive order cited ongoing negotiations. Industrials and autos rallied 3–5% on reduced fears of higher input costs. Trade friction reduction is a marginal macro tailwind; the duration of the pause determines its structural significance.
💬 Comment:
The Fed meeting delivered the clearest policy signal in months: rates on hold, one cut projected, tone less hawkish than feared. That single event unwound three weeks of equity selling and gave crypto the backdrop for BTC's push to $76K. CPI at 3.5% and contracting retail sales confirm the environment remains structurally restrictive - the relief is in the tone, not the data. Oil pulling back to $91-93 reduces the near-term stagflation amplifier but does not resolve it. Macro context sets the volatility environment, but on-chain flows and capital behavior remain the primary drivers of market bias - and that is where this week's analysis focuses.
3. General Market Update.
When the $76K Test Met Its First Real Seller.
BTC hit a new 2026 high of $76,000 intraweek before pulling back sharply - at the time of writing (Sunday), price is near $68,829, with the weekly candle still open and the ETF cost basis at $77.7K unreclaimed.
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🧠 If you’re still reading only the free section, you’re seeing price behavior, not the structure driving risk and positioning.
The price action is visible to everyone. What drives it - the on-chain flows, cost basis levels, miner behavior, and institutional positioning behind this week's $76K test and rejection - is in the premium section below.
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Current state:
BTC (1W, candle open): High $76,000 | Current $68,829 | WoW -5.47% | ATH $126,199 (-45.4%) - reached a new 2026 high before reversing; weekly candle not yet closed
BTC.D (1W): Current 58.74% | High 59.40% | WoW -0.65% | Cycle high 66.03% - first weekly decline in dominance since the bear phase began; early rotation indicator
TOTAL (1W): Current $2.34T | High $2.57T | WoW -4.45% | ATH $4.27T (-45.2%) - rejected at the $2.57T intraweek high, now pulling back toward prior range
OTHERS (1W): Current $172.49B | High $188.7B | WoW -3.63% | ATH $492.52B (-64.9%) - briefly tested $188.7B before reversing; still holding above the $166-170B support zone
Key levels:
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