Bitcoin and Crypto Market Report - Week 15 #174

BTC above $71K, Coinbase Premium positive for five consecutive days, ETF inflows at $633.8M, and organic demand at a -91K BTC deficit. The data is being split in two directions at once.

The price is visible to everyone. What is driving it - the institutional accumulation that added 2.2M ETH and $633.8M in BTC ETF inflows while organic demand ran at a -91K BTC deficit - is what this week's analysis breaks down. The 174th issue of On-chain Insights by IT Tech.

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🎥 YouTube: Onchain_Insights - English | IT Tech PL - Polish | Hub: btc-analysis.com

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Table of contents:

🆓 Free content (for all free subscribers):

1. New Telegram community for Active Traders

2. Top 10 Crypto & Macroeconomic News

🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers):
Deep-dive on-chain market structure analysis ⤵️

3. General Market Update

4. BTC & ETH Spot & Futures Market Structure

5. Crypto Market Sector Performance

6. Key Cost Basis Levels for Bitcoin

7. While Retail Sold ETH at Every Price, Large Investors Accumulated 2.2 Million More

8. Miner Losses Are Compressing - but Only Because Price Recovered, Not Because Stress Is Over

9. ETFs and Strategy Are Buying - the Rest of the Market Is Still Selling

10. U.S. Spot Demand: Coinbase Premium

11. Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF Flows - Weekly Overview

12. Stablecoins Market Overview

13. Newsletter issue summary

14. Forecast for the Upcoming Week

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2. Top 10 Market News: Crypto, Stocks & Macro (April 6-12, 2026).

Ceasefire hopes cut oil's stagflation premium mid-week, hotter CPI capped the relief immediately, and BTC held its range while institutions accumulated - volatility without resolution.

1. U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Talks Trigger Sharp Mid-Week Rally; BTC Temporarily Surges Past $72K. Diplomatic progress collapsed oil premiums and drove a broad risk-asset bounce before fading on weekend ceasefire fractures. Geopolitical headline sensitivity without structural follow-through remains the bear phase pattern.

2. March CPI Prints Hotter at ~3.4% YoY on Energy and Shelter. The April 10 release pushed 10-year yields back toward 4.5% before a partial retreat, confirming the oil shock is now feeding into the inflation baseline.

3. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Post Modest Gains (+1.8% and +2.4%) on Geopolitical Relief. Tech and consumer staples led; the equity recovery reflects ceasefire-driven short covering, not a structural demand shift.

4. Bitcoin Holds $65K-$73K Range; Institutions Accumulate While Retail Stays Sidelined. MicroStrategy added ~4,871 BTC; a separate firm executed the largest single ETH purchase since December 2025 at 71K ETH. Institutional accumulation without retail participation is consistent with early demand recovery, not broad re-entry.

5. FOMC March Minutes Signal Stagflation Caution; No Cuts Priced for H1 2026. Released April 8, the minutes flagged energy-driven inflation risks and a delayed easing path. April 28-29 FOMC holds with no cut expected.

6. February PPI at 3.4% YoY; March PPI Due April 14. The first full post-conflict PPI reading is the next inflation data point with direct implications for the Fed’s May meeting posture.

7. ETH Trades $2,100-$2,200; SOL Near $80 on Regulatory Speculation. Altcoins stabilized near cycle lows. The CLARITY Act markup later in April is a potential regulatory tailwind without on-chain demand confirmation yet.

8. Oil Pulls Back Below $100 After Ceasefire Signals. The partial retreat reduced the stagflation amplifier and contributed to the mid-week bounce. Oil remaining above $90 confirms the underlying supply risk has not resolved.

9. Crypto Fear and Greed in Extreme Fear; BTC Down ~20% YTD - Worst Start on Record. Institutional ETF flows and corporate treasury purchases provided a demand floor that retail sentiment did not.

10. VIX Remains Above 20; Options Positioning Reflects Relief vs. Inflation Tug-of-War. Elevated implied volatility suppresses leveraged long positioning. VIX normalization below 15 historically precedes sustained crypto recovery phases.

💬 Comment:

Week 15 repeated the bear-phase pattern: a geopolitical relief bounce immediately capped by hotter CPI. With oil above $90 and core inflation at 3.4%, the Fed’s April 28-29 meeting carries no realistic easing prospect. The April 14 PPI print and the FOMC decision are the dominant macro variables entering Week 16 - neither resolves the structural picture, but both introduce volatility around it.

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3. General Market Update.

BTC trades above $71K at time of writing with the weekly candle still open - but BTC.D rising to 59.54% and OTHERS gaining only 2.25% versus BTC's 3.75% confirm capital remains concentrated in Bitcoin, not rotating into the broader market.

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🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers).

🧠 If you’re still reading only the free section, you’re seeing price behavior, not the structure driving risk and positioning.

BTC trades above $71K at the time of writing, Coinbase Premium has been positive for five consecutive days, and ETF inflows reached $633.8M this week. At the same time, organic demand ran at a -91K BTC deficit, miners are still realizing losses, and the demand structure remains negative. The price and the structure are pulling in opposite directions - the premium section breaks down, which one leads?

Premium is the weekly framework behind Bitcoin market structure when flows, liquidity, and positioning matter more than headlines.

Current state:

• BTC (1W, candle open): Current $71,620 | Range $67,732-$73,790 | WoW +3.75% | ATH $126,199 (-43.3%)

• BTC.D (1W, candle open): Current 59.54% | High 59.74% | WoW +0.85% | Cycle high 73.63% - dominance rising, no altcoin rotation

• TOTAL (1W, candle open): Current $2.41T | Range $2.30T-$2.48T | WoW +2.94% | ATH $4.27T (-43.5%)

• OTHERS (1W, candle open): Current $176.32B | Range $168.96B-$182.62B | WoW +2.25% | ATH $492.52B (-64.2%)

Key levels: