Bitcoin and Crypto Market Report - Week 16 #175

Demand returned. The question is whether it stays when the catalyst doesn't.

The ceasefire held, the data improved, and Bitcoin tagged its highest price of 2026 - but the structure that matters most closed the week exactly where it started. The 175th issue of On-chain Insights by IT Tech.

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Table of contents:

🆓 Free content (for all free subscribers):

1. New Telegram community for Active Traders

2. Top 10 Crypto & Macroeconomic News

🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers):
Deep-dive on-chain market structure analysis ⤵️

3. General Market Update

4. BTC & ETH Spot & Futures Market Structure

5. Crypto Market Sector Performance

6. Key Cost Basis Levels for Bitcoin

7. The Break-Even Test: Four Times This Bear Phase, Four Different Outcomes

8. 54 Days of LTH Losses in 2026, SMA-30d at 0.995: The Compression That Ends Bear Phases

9. Bull Score at 5/10 - the Same Reading That Appeared Three Times in 2022

10. U.S. Spot Demand: Coinbase Premium

11. Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF Flows - Weekly Overview

12. Stablecoins Market Overview

13. Newsletter issue summary

14. Forecast for the Upcoming Week

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*Disclaimer: Educational content only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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2. Top 10 Market News: Crypto, Stocks & Macro (April 13-19, 2026)

The Iran ceasefire held, oil’s stagflation premium collapsed, and markets repriced five weeks of geopolitical risk in a single week - with crypto leading the reversal.

1. Full Iran Ceasefire Confirmed; Crude Plunges Below $82, Removing Stagflation Tail Risk. Trump’s mediation team declared the deal ironclad on April 15. Energy-complex volatility evaporated overnight, lifting global equities and crypto simultaneously while energy names gave back prior gains. The oil shock that defined Weeks 11-15 is no longer the primary macro variable entering Week 17.

2. Bitcoin Breaks $78K, Posts +11% Weekly on Renewed Institutional Buying. Spot BTC ETFs logged $1.6B in net inflows - the largest single-week total since mid-March - as corporate treasuries, including two new S&P 500 names, resumed accumulation. Total crypto market cap reclaimed $2.9T.

3. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Surge +4.7% and +5.9% - Sharpest Weekly Gain of 2026. The relief rally was broad-based across cyclicals, financials, and small-caps as 10-year Treasury yields dropped 28 bps to 4.12%. Energy cost deflation and earnings beats drove simultaneous equity and risk-asset strength.

4. Q1 Bank Earnings Beat Expectations; JPMorgan, BofA, and Goldman Raise Full-Year Guidance. Net interest margins held and loan demand surprised to the upside; the sector added $180B in market value and pushed the financials index to a 2026 high. Credit risk concerns that dominated earlier in the quarter failed to materialize.

5. March PPI Cools to 2.9% YoY, Below Consensus; Input Costs Ease Post-Oil Spike. Goods deflation offset services stickiness, reinforcing that the oil shock was transitory. June Fed cut pricing climbed above 55% on the back of the print - the first meaningful shift in cut expectations since January.

6. Senate Crypto Reconciliation Bill Clears Final Committee; Floor Vote Scheduled May 4. Bipartisan amendments on stablecoin reserves and DeFi sandbox rules passed 14-3. The market reaction sent ETH +9% and SOL +12% in 48 hours - the most direct legislative demand catalyst since the ETF approvals in 2024.

7. Retail Sales Rebound 0.8% MoM in March; Ex-Auto Beat by Largest Margin Since 2024. Lower gasoline prices and equity wealth effects drove the upside, countering soft-patch fears and lifting consumer-discretionary stocks. The print eliminates the near-term recession scenario from the base case.

8. Ethereum Breaks $2,450; ETH ETF Inflows Hit Record $920M on the Week. Post-ceasefire flows favored Layer-1 tokens, with the altcoin index gaining 14% on the week - its strongest relative performance versus Bitcoin since January. Staking yields drew fresh institutional capital alongside spot ETF demand.

9. Atlanta Fed GDPNow Tracks Q2 at +2.9%, Up from Prior +2.1%. Manufacturing rebound and services resilience pushed the tracker higher, eliminating the stagflation base case that had defined the prior five weeks. The growth-inflation configuration entering May is the most favorable for risk assets since Q3 2025.

10. VIX Crashes 22% to 16.4; Options Positioning Shifts Aggressively Bullish. Implied volatility across equities and crypto collapsed as the geopolitical premium vanished, encouraging carry trades and leveraged long exposure. VIX normalization below 15 has historically preceded sustained crypto recovery phases.

💬 Comment:

Week 16 delivered the exogenous macro shock the bear phase had not seen: simultaneous removal of the oil risk premium, cooling inflation data, and legislative progress on crypto regulation - all in the same week. The macro configuration entering Week 17 is the most favorable for risk assets since before the Iran conflict began. That said, macro context is the lowest tier in the analytical framework and does not override on-chain structure as the primary bias driver. Stretched positioning after a +11% BTC week, combined with 65K BTC in STH exchange inflows at $75K, means the structural test begins now - not next month. The April 28-29 FOMC meeting and May 4 Senate vote are the dominant macro variables entering Week 17.

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3. General Market Update.

BTC posted its strongest weekly candle since February, tagging $78,333 intraweek before pulling back - but the weekly close has not yet confirmed the move structurally.

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🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers).

🧠 If you’re still reading only the free section, you’re seeing price behavior, not the structure driving risk and positioning.

The price action is visible to everyone. What drives it - the on-chain flows, cost basis levels, and holder behavior behind this week’s $78K tag and Sunday pullback - is in the premium section below.

Premium is the weekly framework behind the Bitcoin market structure when flows, liquidity, and positioning matter more than headlines.

Current state:

• BTC (1W, candle still open at time of writing): High $78,333 | Current $75,003 | WoW +6.02% | ATH $126,199 (-40.6%)

• BTC.D (1W): 59.95% | WoW +1.01% | Cycle high 73.63% - holding elevated, no altcoin rotation confirmed

• TOTAL (1W): $2.51T | WoW +5.01% | ATH $4.27T (-41.2%) - recovering toward prior consolidation zone

• OTHERS (1W): $180.55B | WoW +3.14% | ATH $492.52B (-63.3%) - structurally the weakest chart in crypto

Key levels: