Welcome to the 189th issue of On-chain Insights by IT Tech. Bitcoin spent the first half of this week grinding through the aftermath of a $110M+ hardware wallet exploit and a wave of Coldcard-related coin movement, then caught a real bid: a blowout ETF inflow week and a July payrolls miss pulled price off a $62,300 low back above $65,000, closing at $64,830.22, up 1.98% at the time of writing (Sunday).
What's different from last issue is how many indicators moved together. BTC and ETH ETFs pulled in a combined $1.1B, the best week since April. Bitcoin’s Coinbase discount narrowed for the first time in weeks. Taker flow flipped buy-dominant decisively on August 5 and hasn’t looked back. Even the structural support band underneath price has compressed by about 30% since June, the kind of tightening that tends to mark a bottom rather than a warning.
Not everything confirms the same story. Retail wallets have shed 23,000 BTC since late July while large investors sat still, a distribution pattern worth watching. STH and ETF holders remain underwater at $67.5K and $71.4K, and OTHERS barely moved while BTC and ETH did the work. The data below breaks down whether this recovery has the legs to test $65,600, or whether the overhead supply gets there first.
This week in On-Chain:
Bitcoin closed at $64,830.22, up 1.98% at the time of writing (Sunday), recovering off a $62,300 low but still capped below the $65,600 range top
BTC and ETH ETFs pulled in a combined $1.1B this week, the best print since April, reversing last week’s outflows
Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium gap narrowed to -45.5 from -68.7 last issue, the first improvement since the correction from $126,200 began
Retail wallets shed about 23,300 BTC since peaking July 29, while large investor holdings stayed essentially flat
The structural support band beneath price has narrowed about 30% since June, a compression the indicator reads as a forming bottom
STH and ETF cost basis ($67.5K and $71.4K) remain above spot, keeping both cohorts underwater and a likely source of selling into strength
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Top 10 Market News: Crypto, Stocks & Macro (August 3-9, 2026).
Blowout ETF inflows and a weak jobs print pulled Bitcoin back above $65,000, while Coldcard losses, Strategy's first BTC sale, and a fizzled soft fork added noise underneath.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs post their strongest weekly inflows since April, near $800-853M net over five straight positive sessions (Aug 8). IBIT took more than 80% of the total; combined BTC and ETH ETF inflows approached $1.1B, and the reversal lined up with BTC’s move off a $62,300 low back above $65,000.
July nonfarm payrolls miss badly at -23,000 jobs against a +80,000 forecast, with prior months revised down and unemployment at 4.1% (Aug 7). Markets cut September hike odds on the print; yields eased, and BTC pushed through $65,000.
Senate leadership files cloture on the CLARITY Act, setting up a September floor vote after the bill missed its pre-recess window over ethics and stablecoin-yield disputes (Aug 8). The 60-vote threshold is still the hurdle, but the bill stays alive.
Coldcard exploit losses climb past $110-130M across multiple waves, with Galaxy Research and TRM Labs tracking 1,700-2,000+ BTC drained from thousands of addresses tied to pre-2021 firmware. About 210,000 BTC moved out of older long-term wallets, read mostly as custody migration rather than selling.
Whale wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC added more than 20,000 BTC (about $1.2B) since late July, per Santiment, even as retail participation lagged and price stayed range-bound below $65K for most of the week before the jobs-driven bounce.
Strategy sells 1,638 BTC for about $105M at an average $63,957 to fund preferred dividends and STRC buybacks, cutting its holdings to roughly 842,138 BTC (Aug 3). The company is still underwater against its roughly $75K average cost basis, and this is its first outright sale as the largest corporate BTC holder.
A BIP-110 soft fork activates briefly, mines a handful of blocks on minimal miner support, then stalls; developers warned users interacting with the minority chain risked losing real BTC (Aug 8-9).
Risk assets stay mixed: the weak payrolls print added a modest risk-on tone, while earlier AI and tech equity volatility alongside elevated real yields had kept BTC boxed in. Crypto-linked equities like Galaxy and Robinhood tracked the same flow and macro shifts.
Trump Media scraps its $6.4B crypto venture with Crypto.com amid rising ethics and political scrutiny around crypto ties (Aug 8), pulling one high-profile adoption narrative off the table.
A wallet dormant since 2011 moves about 50 BTC (about $3.2M), while Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan repeats the case for multi-trillion-dollar institutional allocation into Bitcoin (Aug 7-8).
💬 Comment
Two numbers did the work this week: close to $800M in ETF inflows over five straight sessions, and a payrolls miss that cut September hike odds. Together they pulled BTC off a $62,300 low back above $65,000, with whale wallets adding roughly $1.2B on top of the ETF bid. Coldcard’s losses, Strategy’s first BTC sale, and a stalled soft fork chipped at sentiment but didn’t offset that demand. Until ETF flows reverse or the labor data proves to be a one-off, the recovery has the stronger case.
General Market Update.
Bitcoin bounced back toward range resistance on this week's flow data, but altcoins sat out the move entirely.
Current state (still-open weekly candle at the time of writing, Sunday):
BTC: $64,830.22, up 1.98% on the week at the time of writing (Sunday), recovering off a $62,300 low toward this week’s $65,391 high
BTC.D (Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market cap): 59.35%, up 0.66% on the week, holding the same 58-60% band it’s traded in since June
TOTAL (total crypto market cap): $2.19T, up 1.35% on the week
OTHERS (total market cap excluding the top 10 assets): $161.95B, down 0.04% on the week, essentially flat while BTC gained nearly 2%
Key levels:
Resistance: $65,391-$65,600, this week’s high and the top of the range that has capped every bounce since the correction from $126,200
Support: $61,800-$62,300, this week’s low and the range floor
💬 Comment
BTC rallied off this week’s $62,300 low to a $65,391 high, closing near $64,830, up 1.98%, but stayed under the $65,600 ceiling that’s capped every bounce since the correction from $126,200. That move lines up with the ETF inflow rebound and the weak payrolls print covered above. BTC.D barely moved, up 0.66% to 59.35%, so the strength wasn’t Bitcoin-specific, yet OTHERS sat flat at -0.04% while BTC gained nearly 2%. Until OTHERS starts keeping pace with Bitcoin, breadth stays this rally’s weak point.
Crypto Heatmap TOP 300 Coins (7D).
Bitcoin and Ethereum both up about 2%, with the real volatility sitting outside the majors.
Current state:
BTC +2.10% ($64,783) | ETH +2.10% ($1,915) - the two majors moved in lockstep this week
Majors: BNB +2.90%, XRP -4.60%, SOL +3.90%, TRX +0.40% - XRP the outlier, the only major in the red
Notable green: BTW +99.0%, CYS +216.1%, LION +79.8%, KHYPE +55.0%, PUMP +15.4% - concentrated in low-liquidity names
Notable red: BEAT -24.5%, UB -21.5%, PEANUT -14.9%, LDO -11.8%, LGNS -11.8%, ZANO -11.2%, ONDO -11.0%, CRO -10.2%, INJ -10.2%
💬 Comment
Bitcoin and Ethereum posted matching 2.1% gains this week, a rare case of the two majors moving in lockstep instead of one leading the other. XRP was the exception among majors, down 4.6% while BNB and SOL both cleared 2%. The real volatility sat outside the majors: BTW, CYS, and LION each moved 50-200%+, the kind of swing that points to thin liquidity rather than a market trend. On the downside, BEAT’s -24.5% and UB’s -21.5% led a cluster of DeFi and infrastructure tokens, LDO, ONDO, CRO, and INJ, all down more than 10%. Until more of the board turns green outside the top few majors, breadth stays weak beneath the BTC and ETH bounce.
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Spot & Futures Structure: Ethereum's Spot Buyers Turn Dominant While Bitcoin Holds Steady.
Bitcoin's order-flow readings barely moved this week, but Ethereum's spot book just flipped toward buyers.
Current state:
BTC ($64,773.76, +2.5% 7d, -0.32% 24h): spot average order size reads Big Whale Orders, futures average order size Normal; both spot and futures volume bubble maps read Cooling; taker CVD (90-day) Neutral on both sides
ETH ($1,913.97, +2.32% 7d, -0.1% 24h): spot average order size reads Big Whale Orders, futures average order size Normal; spot and futures volume bubble maps Neutral on both sides; spot taker CVD (90-day) reads Taker Buy Dominant, futures taker CVD Neutral
💬 Comment
Bitcoin's order-flow structure barely moved from last issue: whale-sized orders sit on the spot side only, both spot and futures volume are cooling, and 90-day taker CVD stays neutral across both books. Ethereum shows the one real shift: spot taker CVD flipped to buy-dominant, while futures average order size cooled from big whale orders to normal. That’s spot buying behind ETH’s move, not a market-wide shift, and it lines up with the heatmap’s read of BTC and ETH gaining together while breadth elsewhere stayed weak. Until Ethereum’s futures book shows the same buy-side conviction, this looks like early positioning, not confirmed demand.
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Crypto Market Sector Performance.
Sector Performance – Weighted Average, last 7 days
(Change in fully diluted market cap by sector, weighted by token size)
Most of the market caught a bid this week, led by Solana Ecosystem and Agentic Payments tokens.
Current state:
11 of 14 sectors closed green, average change across sectors +3.0%
Best performers: Solana Ecosystem +6.04%, Agentic Payments +5.69%, Ethereum Ecosystem +4.68%
Worst performers: Lending -1.31%, DePIN -1.30%, Exchanges -0.38%
💬 Comment
11 of 14 sectors closed green this week, in line with the BTC and ETH gains covered above. Solana Ecosystem led at +6.04%, followed by Agentic Payments at +5.69%, both outpacing the two majors by a wide margin. Bitcoin Ecosystem tokens added 3.22%, outpacing BTC’s own 1.98% gain, a reversal from last issue when infrastructure rallied while the asset itself sat red. The only red came from Exchanges, DePIN, and Lending, each down within 1.3% of flat. Until more than three sectors turn red at once, breadth stays supportive of this week’s bounce.
🔐 Premium Insights
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Everything above is the surface. Below the paywall: where cost basis levels sit relative to price, what the Coinbase premium gap and ETF flows say about who's actually behind this bounce, and whether retail or large holders are driving the on-chain data underneath it.