On-chain Insights by IT Tech - Week 32 Bitcoin Analysis & Highlights #139

ETF flows flip late, ETH leads rotation, and stablecoin liquidity climbs.

Aug 10, 2025

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Bitcoin Market Overview: Spot & Futures Market Signals
Bitcoin: Strong-Hands Demand – Fresh Coins Locked Away
U.S. Spot Demand Gauge: Coinbase Premium Index
Rotation lens: ETH vs BTC
Market Breadth & Dominance
Bitcoin ETF Flow – Weekly Snapshot
Stablecoin Market Overview
Newsletter issue summary
Forecast for the Upcoming Week

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3. Top 10 Macro & Crypto News (Aug 4–10, 2025)

Summary of the most significant crypto, macro, and equity stories from the week, focused on policy, institutional flows, and volatility triggers.

🧠 Key Takeaways:

BTC traded between 115K and 117K as policy headlines hit risk appetite, while spot BTC ETFs posted the largest outflow since May, 812M dollars.
ETH ETFs ended a 20-day inflow streak, signaling a pause in the institutional bid.
Policy tone improved at the margin: the SEC said liquid staking participants are not securities issuers; President Trump tapped Stephen Miran for a Fed role.
Real-world adoption advanced: Ripple bought Rail for 200M dollars and announced RLUSD to join the stablecoin race.
Cross-asset stress rose: tech and semis fell hard, Nvidia down 7 percent, even as markets priced a high probability of a September Fed cut.

📰 Weekly Highlights:

BTC pops on Fed pick: Bitcoin reclaimed 117K after President Trump named Stephen Miran to a Fed role, lifting hopes for a clearer policy backdrop for digital assets.
Spot BTC ETFs see 812M dollars of outflows: biggest since May. ETH ETFs broke a 20-day inflow run, reflecting caution amid volatility and tariff chatter.
Ripple buys Rail for 200M dollars: RLUSD stablecoin announced to complement XRP and compete with USDT and USDC, deepening Ripple’s payments push.
SEC on liquid staking: the regulator clarified that liquid staking participants are not subject to securities-issuer disclosures, easing a key uncertainty.
Arkham traces a 3.5B-dollar BTC theft (2020): the largest known crypto theft tied to a Chinese mining pool resurfaced, highlighting infrastructure risk.
US equities slump: Nasdaq down 3 percent. Semis led lower by Nvidia. Risk reduction in stocks spilled into crypto.
COIN whipsaws: Coinbase, trading near 355 dollars, saw headline-driven swings. Some analysts still flag targets above 400 dollars.
Fed path: markets priced about 94 percent odds of a September 2025 cut. The Fed projected two cuts in 2026.
Tariff and geopolitics: renewed tariff threats and nuclear rhetoric pressured risk. BTC briefly dipped under 115K before stabilizing.
Dalio’s hedge case: Ray Dalio floated a 15 percent blend of gold and Bitcoin as a macro hedge, reinforcing BTC’s institutional role.

💬 Comment:

Flows paused and equities cracked, but policy signals improved marginally. In the near term, ETF outflows and semiconductor volatility can cap the upside. In the medium term, a growing stablecoin and payments stack, plus clearer rules, keep the bull case intact if macro headlines do not worsen.

4. Current market situation.

📊 Market Heatmap Summary

Big coins: ETH +21.5%, XRP +10.5%, SOL +10.4%, BNB +6.5%, BTC +3.7%. BTC rose, but less than the others.
Ethereum names were strong: LDO, ETHX, CBETH went up well.
DeFi up: UNI +17%, plus AAVE, COMP, CRV, SUSHI with solid gains.
Layer-1 and Layer-2: AVAX, NEAR, ICP, ARB up mid-teens. SUI, CRO, ADA smaller gains.
Memecoins: DOGE +10.5%, SHIB +10.5%, PEPE +14.6%.
Weak spots: XMR −8.8%, TON −8.7%, XDC ~−8%, plus TKX and QUBIC down.
Stablecoins: little change.

💬 Comment:

Money rotated from BTC into altcoins. ETH led, and DeFi was strong. Expect lower BTC dominance while this trend lasts. Keep an eye on laggards and any token unlocks that can add short-term volatility.

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6. Weekly Insider Token Unlocks.

Weekly Token-Unlock Calendar (Aug 11–17). Total unlock volume: ~$120M

Key highlights:

APT · $30.31M · 1.01% of circulating supply · Tue, Aug 12
ARB · $38.63M · 1.80% of circ · Sat, Aug 16
SEI · $17.07M · 0.96% of circ · Fri, Aug 15
STRK · $16.05M · 3.31% of circ · Fri, Aug 15
IO · $6.08M · 5.44% of circ · Mon, Aug 11
CYBER · $5.75M · 7.89% of circ · Thu, Aug 14
PEAQ · $5.29M · 7.59% of circ · Tue, Aug 12
ACE · $0.82M · 2.09% of circ · Fri, Aug 15

💬 Comment:

Dollar vs float: ARB and APT are the largest by size, while CYBER, PEAQ, and IO are big as a share of supply. Expect the latter to move more on thinner books.
Timing risk: Most activity clusters Thu–Sat (Aug 14–16). Weekend liquidity can amplify any sell pressure, especially for ARB.
What to watch: Exchange inflows, borrow rates, funding, and open interest on the affected tickers in the 24–48 hours around each unlock.
Read the tape: If price drifts lower while OI rises and funding goes negative, it points to hedged supply and weak bids. If balances stay flat and price holds, the unlock is likely pre-sold or absorbed OTC.
Tactics: Avoid chasing strength into unlocks; look for post-event reclaim on rising spot volume for better entries.

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