On-chain Insights by IT Tech - Week 20 Bitcoin Analysis & Highlights #128

Institutional Momentum Builds as Retail Hesitates – Key Signals Ahead of Next Leg Up.

May 18, 2025

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The 128th issue of On-chain Insights by IT Tech is out! I appreciate your support - over 4,700 subscribers strong! Not subscribed yet? Now's the time to join! 👇

Bitcoin Market Overview: Trending On-Chain Metrics
Bitcoin: Retail vs Large Investor Dynamics
Altcoin Season Watch: Rotation Still in Early Phase
Retail Buyers Are Back – A Bullish Confirmation Signal?
Bitcoin ETF Flow – Weekly Snapshot (May 12–16)
Stablecoin Market Overview
Newsletter issue summary
Forecast for the Upcoming Week

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2. Top 10 Crypto & Stock News (May 12 - 18, 2025)

Coinbase Joins S&P 500
Coinbase (COIN) will enter the S&P 500 on May 19, replacing Discover Financial. Shares jumped 24%, but a concurrent data breach raised security concerns.
Bitcoin Hits $105K on Tariff Truce
BTC surged to $105K after the US-China tariff pause. Analysts see potential upside to $220K–$250K. $312M BTC outflow from Binance signals accumulation.
S&P 500 Turns Positive for 2025
Tech stocks rallied on easing trade tensions. Nasdaq rose 1.8%. UnitedHealth’s 18% drop held back the Dow.
Ethereum Hits $2,500 After Upgrade
ETH rose 44% following the Fusaka upgrade, which improved Layer 2 scalability and reduced costs.
XRP Surpasses USDT in Market Cap
XRP gained 10%, becoming the third-largest crypto after a rejected Ripple-SEC settlement.
Saylor adds $1.34B BTC
MicroStrategy bought $1.34B in BTC. Metaplanet acquired 1241 BTC for $126.7M.
$TRUMP Coin Stirring Debate
The meme coin linked to Trump fell from $75 to $12. Foreign involvement raised concerns.
DeFi Slide, Chainlink Key Token
DeFi saw bearish signals. Based on trend shifts, LINK could climb to $19.25 or dip to $13.
Robinhood Buys WonderFi
Robinhood acquired WonderFi for $179M, expanding its crypto presence in Canada.
NRG Energy Stock Soars 26%
NRG led the S&P 500 after buying LS Power assets for $12B amid energy sector consolidation.

3. Current market situation.

📊 7-Day Heatmap Recap

BTC holds steady at $103,992 (+0.13%)
ETH leads majors with +1.57%, trading at $2,521
XRP gains +1.77%, briefly overtaking USDT in market cap
SOL dips slightly to $171.41 (–1%)
BNB under pressure, dropping –6.15%
DOGE and SHIB decline –4.23% and –6.15%, respectively
Outperformers: PEPE, RENDER, FTN, LINK, SUI, METH

🔻 Top Decliners (large caps):

ARB –13.26%, APT –10.32%, UNI –13.84%
TON –6.99%, NEAR –4.53%, ICP –9.91%

📌 Sector Trends:

AI & Infra tokens: FET, GRT, RNDR show resilience despite volatility
Memecoins: mostly retracing — PEPE holds green while DOGE, SHIB, FLOKI pull back
Stablecoins: minor depegs observed (e.g., USDC.e), still within normal bounds

📌 Comment:

The market has entered a consolidation phase. BTC dominance remains intact, but sectoral rotations are evident. ETH and select AI tokens continue to show strength. Retail demand appears to be fading slightly, while institutional flows are holding steady.

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5. Weekly Insider Token Unlocks (May 19–25)

🚨 Over $84M in tokens are unlocking this week – increased sell-side pressure expected.

🔍 Highlights:

PYTH: $78.21M (12.76% of circulating supply) – major unlock risk
PIXEL: $1.98M (4.77%) – 32.85% already unlocked
KARRAT: $903.5K (3.84%) – watch thin liquidity tokens
GTAI: $295K (3.75%) – low market depth may amplify effects
XMW: $1.14M (1.58%) – already 65% unlocked

⚠️ Other notable unlocks:

HOOK ($661.6K, 1.7%), C98, GAL, C9

📌 Comment:

PYTH dominates this week’s unlock value. Watch for volatility spikes around May 19. Short-term dips could offer entry points on oversold reactions.

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6. 🔐 Bitcoin Market Overview: Trending On-Chain Metrics.

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