On-chain Insights by IT Tech - Week 23 Bitcoin Analysis & Highlights #131

Low Reserves, High Conviction – Bitcoin Faces Next Big Move.

Jun 08, 2025

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2. Top 10 Crypto & Macroeconomic News (June 2-8, 2025).

Bitcoin Defends $100,000
BTC maintained a price above $100,000 throughout the week, despite short-term fluctuations and testing support around $102,000.
Market Cap and Volume Decline
Early in the week, the crypto market cap fell 4.5%, and trading volume hit its lowest level in weeks.
Macroeconomic Volatility
PMI data, Eurozone inflation, and ECB interest rate decisions influenced investor sentiment and the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq/S&P 500.
Trump-Musk Conflict Sparked Panic
A public dispute between Trump and Musk led to a temporary drop in Bitcoin’s value below $102,000 and heightened market volatility.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows
On June 6th, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as BlackRock, experienced net inflows of $200 million, indicating an increasing level of institutional interest in the cryptocurrency.
Spot Market Volume Surge
On June 8th, BTC/USD trading volume on Coinbase surged by 20% compared to the previous day, reaching a staggering $1.8 billion.
Hash Ribbons Buy Signal
June 5th Hash Ribbons indicator generated third "buy" signal of 2025, historically accurate for long-term BTC bottoms.
Increase in Addresses with >1 BTC
According to Glassnode, wallets holding over 1 BTC increased 12% weekly, indicating ongoing accumulation by retail and institutional investors.
Ethereum Under Pressure but Potential Remains
ETH corrected to $2,515 but still attracts investor attention, awaiting ETF decisions and staking developments.
Strong BTC Correlation with Stock Market
BTC correlation with S&P 500 at 0.65 over last 30 days; June 5th saw "golden cross" - classic bullish signal.

3. Current market situation.

📊 Market Heatmap Overview (7-day recap)

The crypto market showed mixed performance this week, with Bitcoin defending key support levels while altcoins struggled to gain traction.

BTC: $105,472 (+0.51%) — modest recovery from last week’s dip, trading sideways near support
ETH: $2,514 (+0.88%) — relative strength continues; potential breakout hinges on ETF narratives
XRP: $0.96 (+0.21%) — slight recovery, but no clear trend
BNB: $649.67 (+0.11%) — low volatility; range-bound trading
SOL: $149.79 (–1.71%) — continues to bleed; weak L1 performance persists
DOGE: $0.184 (–1.60%), SHIB: $0.000017 (–1.87%) — meme sector remains flat to negative

🟢 Top Gainers (Large Caps & Narratives)

KTA: +21.60% — AI narrative rebound
FTN: +7.28% — consistent performance in DePIN sector
LEO, AAVE, INJ, QNT: All posting low-single-digit gains on stronger fundamentals

🔻 Top Decliners

ARB: –8.53% — L2 sentiment weakens again
XMR: –5.36%
NEAR, APT, GRT, ICP: all down between –3% and –6%
JUP, VIRTUAL, ABTC: noticeable double-digit losses in low-cap and speculative tokens

🔍 Sector Trends

Layer 1s & 2s: Mostly flat or red — SOL, ARB, MATIC, NEAR showing continued weakness
Meme tokens: Mostly neutral to down — no signs of renewed hype
AI & DePIN: FTN and KTA standout; RNDR and FET remain directionless
DeFi: Mixed results — AAVE green, UNI flat, LDO and CRV underperform
Stablecoins: Pegs remain intact; dominance unchanged, with no major flows

💬 Comment:

After a volatile start, BTC stabilized around $105K, helping ease market fear. Still, altcoins show low conviction. Stronger narratives (AI, DePIN) are selectively outperforming, while most sectors remain in wait-and-see mode. ETF inflows and macro news may dictate the next major move. Watch $107K BTC as a pivot.

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5. Weekly Insider Token Unlocks (May 27 – June 2, 2025)

ZdjęcieTokenomist - Upcoming token unlocks — Tokenomist - Upcoming token unlocks

📊 Total Unlock Volume: $52.3M

🔍 Key Highlights:

• APT: $30.85M unlock (1.07% of supply) → Largest nominal unlock this week. Monitor June 12 for volatility due to the 0% previously unlocked status.

• STRK: $16.04M unlock (3.79% of supply) → High unlock ratio from team and private investors. Mid-cap token at risk of correction.

• BB: $2.85M unlock (6.67%) → Despite low value, the high % unlock on low liquidity makes BB a high-risk watch.

🔻 Other Notables:

• AGI: $1.83M (2.01%) - Medium unlock size, risk depends on daily volume.

• GLMR: $226.8K (0.31%) — Low impact, but fully locked before this week.

• COPI, VRTX, ML: Low to moderate nominal values, with VRTX at 1.51% of supply.

💬 Comment:

This week’s unlock calendar is modest in size but contains notable concentration in APT, STRK, and BB. These tokens, especially with previously locked statuses or lower liquidity environments, could see abrupt price swings. Exercise caution with positioning around June 12–15.

🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers).

In this week’s premium edition, we decode the key on-chain shifts behind Bitcoin’s latest stabilization around $105K. From buyer pressure signals and ETF flow deceleration to multi-year reserve lows and diverging investor behavior, premium readers get the real-time edge at potential turning points.

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6. 🔐 Bitcoin Market Overview: Spot & Futures Market Signals.

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