On-chain Insights by IT Tech - Week 26 Bitcoin Analysis & Highlights #133

Accumulation Amid Caution: What Institutions Know That Retail Doesn’t.

Jun 29, 2025

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2. Top 10 Crypto & Macroeconomic News (June 23–29, 2025).

Bitcoin Rebounds to $105K: BTC recovers from geopolitical-driven lows, returning to approximately $105K. A major catalyst: $588.6M inflows into spot BTC ETFs on June 24, suggesting institutional resilience.
Ethereum ETF Momentum: ETH spot ETFs saw $71.3M in inflows on June 24, continuing the institutional interest in Ethereum despite macro headwinds.
GENIUS Act Advances: The U.S. Senate moved forward on the GENIUS Act to regulate stablecoins. Circle stock surged over 750% since its IPO in early June; Coinbase also benefited.
Trump Media Adds BTC: Trump Media confirmed a $400M buyback and now holds a $2.3B BTC reserve. The firm strengthens its position as a pro-crypto media stock.
WazirX Recovery Post-Hack: After a $234M exploit, WazirX received approval to revise its recovery plan, including tokenized repayments. Market trust is being cautiously rebuilt.
Circle & Coinbase Surge: Circle’s parabolic growth (+750%) and Coinbase’s post-IPO rally are driven by stablecoin legislation, DeFi adoption, and Shopify/AmEx integrations.
Tether Invests in Mining: Tether announced $2M+ investment into mining infrastructure, aiming to become the leading crypto miner by 2025.
Nasdaq/S&P 500 ATHs: U.S. indices hit all-time highs on June 27. Crypto-exposed equities contributed, although macro risks like tariffs loom.
Oil Stocks React to Iran Tensions: US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher, benefiting oil companies while putting risk assets like crypto under pressure.
Nike Earnings Outshine Macro Noise: Nike's strong earnings lifted its stock, providing a haven during broader macro and crypto market noise.

3. Current market situation.

🟢 Weekly Heatmap Recap (June 23–29, 2025)

Overview:

The crypto market rebounded strongly this week, with the heatmap showing widespread green across most sectors. Bitcoin led the rally with a solid move back above $107K, while Ethereum outperformed on ETF momentum. Altcoins followed suit, especially within Layer 1 ecosystems and meme/AI narratives.

🔹 Top Performers:

SOL: $150.2 (+11.36%) – Strongest weekly gainer among majors, driven by Layer 1 momentum.
ETH: $2,440 (+7.43%) – Outpaced BTC amid renewed Ethereum ETF interest.
BTC: $107,474 (+4.92%) – Rebounded sharply from the prior week’s volatility.
LINK: +12.01% – Sustained demand for oracle solutions.
KAS: +10.71% – Continues to be among the strongest L1 trenders.

🔻 Underperformers:

WBT: –6.41% – Profit-taking after recent rallies.
TRX: –5.66% – Weak sentiment despite broad market strength.
OKB: –1.15% – Exchange token sees limited participation.
KAIA: –7.49% – High-beta name sold off despite bullish momentum elsewhere.

🔍 Sector View:

Layer 1s: Strong performance (SOL, AVAX, NEAR, KAS).
Meme Coins: Recovered well (PEPE +7.26%, FLOKI +6.25%).
DeFi: Broadly positive (AAVE +4.93%, UNI +2.74%, LDO +5.74%).
AI & DePIN: Continued resilience (RNDR +2.94%, FET +9.95%, FLR +10.76%).
Exchange Tokens: Mixed (BNB +2.7%, OKB –1.15%, WBT –6.41%).

💬 Comment:

The risk-on sentiment returned to the market, supported by strong ETF flows and easing regulatory uncertainty. Ethereum outperformed on ETF-related momentum, and Bitcoin’s recovery back above $107K helped trigger a broader altcoin rally. Overall, the heatmap reflects renewed confidence, with rotation into high-beta tokens and renewed meme coin participation. Still, scattered red blocks show that selective corrections and profit-taking continue in lower liquidity names.

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5. Weekly Insider Token Unlocks (June 30 – July 6, 2025).

📊 Total Unlock Volume: $150.6M+

🔍 Key Highlights:

SUI: $77.35M unlock (0.86% of supply) – Nominally the largest unlock. Watch July 1 for volatility spikes around key resistance levels.
ENA: $43.24M unlock (2.82%) – High-value unlock with 39.49% of tokens already unlocked. Market may price in further dilution risk.
OP: $16.69M unlock (1.79%) – Core L2 project with frequent unlocks. 36.93% of total supply already unlocked.
KMNO: $4.74M (3.82%) – Medium value but elevated relative unlock size. Thin liquidity could magnify price impact.

🔻 Other Notables:

DYDX: $1.99M (0.56%) – Lower absolute and relative unlock; low impact expected.
REZ: $2.59M (12.16%) – High unlock % on a low-liquidity token. Potential for price swings post-event.
ZETA: $2.23M (1.50%) – Mid-cap token with 41.70% of supply already circulating.
SPEC: $1.76M (12.42%) – Unlock scheduled for July 6. Low market cap may amplify sell pressure.

💬 Comment:

This week’s unlocks are led by SUI and ENA, both exceeding $40M in value, and should be watched closely around July 1–2. The mix of high percentage unlocks (KMNO, REZ, SPEC) and large-cap dilution risk (SUI, ENA) suggests a volatile mid-week window. Avoid low-liquidity tokens near unlock events unless confirmed demand exists.

🔐 Premium Insights (exclusive for paid subscribers).

Curious what’s moving the market beneath the surface? This week’s Premium section dives deep into the behavior of whales, short-term holders, ETF dynamics, and BTC supply.

From a historic low in retail holdings to a supply crunch on exchanges and fresh inflows into ETFs – the signals are subtle but significant. If you’re serious about staying ahead, this is the data that matters.

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6. 🔐 Bitcoin Market Overview: Spot & Futures Market Signals.

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